🔥 Liverpool are the big talking point this week. According to @robtFPL's odds: Top 5 xG for GW4: LIV 2.41 ARS 2.10 MCI 2.02 NEW 2.01 CHE 1.81 That’s a clear edge for the Reds 💪

Clean sheet odds: ARS 44% LIV 43% NEW 43% CRY 43% FUL 35% So Arsenal, Newcastle, Palace & even Fulham defenders can be considered. But for Liverpool, it’s attack that really shines 🔥

Liverpool defence? 🤔 There's no TAA now. Frimpong is injured. Kerkez hasn’t shown much attacking threat. Meanwhile Arsenal, Newcastle & Palace offer similar defensive picks and odds. So the move is clear: 3x LFC attack on Free Hit 😏

Liverpool face Burnley away. Burnley have conceded more shots than any PL team in the first 3 GWs 🤯 3x Reds attack on FH feels like the play 🎯

Who are the attackers? 4 realistic options: Salah, Gakpo, Wirtz, Ekitike. ✅ Salah is nailed. ✅ Ekitike is nailed. Between Wirtz & Gakpo, the latter wins — 20 pts vs 7 so far. So FH trio = Salah + Ekitike + Gakpo.

On Wildcard though, I’d prefer balance. Ekitike + Salah + VVD would be my Liverpool trio. Double attack + defensive cover 🔒

👀 Next big talking point: Nottingham Forest under Ange. Nuno = sit deep, defend, counter. Ange = press high, attack, risk chaos. Night and day difference 🌗

Under Ange, Spurs scored & conceded 60+ in both seasons. Last year? Just 6 clean sheets for Spurs 😅 Only Fulham & relegated sides had fewer. Forest under Nuno? 13 clean sheets — 2nd best after Liverpool. Big downgrade incoming for Forest defence 🚨

Underlying stats: Big chances conceded: Forest 72 (2nd best) Spurs 119 (4th worst) So Ange-ball = fun for attackers, pain for defenders 💥 Holding Forest defence long-term could hurt.

Most-owned Forest picks in defence: GK Sels (16%) Ola Aina (12%) Short term fixtures are kind (BUR, SUN in 5-6) ✅ But from GW7 (NEW, CHE, BOU), it gets rough. Hold till 6, then ship 🚪

Forest attack might benefit though. Spurs created 99 big chances last year vs 78 for Forest. Also 60+ more shots in the box. Less long shots, more penalty-box action incoming 📈

Most-owned attacker: Chris Wood (24%). But Ange likes a pressing forward — possible minutes risk for Wood. Midfielders Gibbs-White, Ndoye & CHO (<6% owned) could quietly emerge 👀

@robtFPL stat time 📊 Defcon hit rate for assets: Playing for Ange vs Playing against Ange: CB: 15% vs 36% FB: 13% vs 17% DM/CM: 29% vs 40% AM: 4% vs 12% Basically, hit rate better when you are playing against Ange than for Ange 👍

Thinking of taking a hit for Palace defence? Fixtures: SUN (H), WHU (A), EVE (H). 43% CS odds vs Sunderland this week ✅ Much better than a Burnley for example (LIV, NFO, AVL). Worth a hit if you’re BB5 / FH6 / WC8 planning 💡

I’ve got 0.8m ITB. Likely move = Esteve ➡️ Guehi/Richards. Start Palace defender over Anderson. Then solve Sarr problem next week with Kudus or an Elliot punt 👀 FH6 + WC8 = strategy locked 🔒

Palace defenders compared: Stat check: Munoz = best Palace pick. xA 0.8 (next best Lacroix 0.12). Even leads all Palace players for xA (Mateta next best at 0.33)🤯 Lacroix has slightly better defcon numbers, but Munoz is 🔝

Sarr replacements? Short term till WC8: ⭐ Semenyo (if affordable) ⭐ Kudus / Brennan Johnson (Spurs) Spurs fixture run is 🔥: WHU, BHA, WOL, LEE.

Long term (till WC13): Enzo is my favourite. Best xGI, 2G 2A already, Chelsea fixtures 8-12 look great. Paqueta is 2nd. On pens, 2 goals already + vibes celebration 🤌 WHU have 4th best fixtures from GW4-12.

🚨 Aston Villa watch: Still the only team across England’s top 4 leagues yet to score 😬 But they’ve made deadline day signings: Sancho, Lindelof, Elliott. Elliott is the standout.

Elliott starred for England U21s at Euros, Player of the Tournament. 5 goals, beating Shearer’s U21 record 👀 Could be the creative spark Villa badly need.

Villa fixtures are excellent: EVE (A) SUN (A) FUL (H) BUR (H) 2nd best run after Spurs. Opponents’ xGA: EVE 5.5 (18th) SUN 2.8 (4th) FUL 5.2 (16th) BUR 6.6 (20th) Time to hold Watkins & Co 🙌

Salah watch 👀 This season (GW1-3): 1G (LIV 8G) 0.31 xG (LIV 3.43) 4 shots (LIV 33) Last season (GW1-3): 3G (LIV 7G) 1.7 xG (LIV 7.08) 10 shots (LIV 48) Huge drop-off 😬

Salah’s share: Shots: 20% ➡️ 12% xG: 24% ➡️ 9% He’s no longer the focal point with new attackers + Isak incoming. But… Liverpool’s next 2 fixtures: BUR (A), EVE (H). Salah is still 🔝 hold & a captaincy option. Same for Wirtz.

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End of thread. GW4 feels like a huge swing week 🎢 FH? WC? Or just rolling the transfer? What’s YOUR plan for this week? 👀 Reply below ⬇️ Retweet if this thread helped ❤️

@BakchodFpl 1. I’m not currently intending on WC/FH for GW4. 3 matches in, loads of variance. Will allow for some data/stats to settle before using WC/FH. Is this a sound strategy considering a lot of FPL managers will be using WC/FH in GW4? 2. Captaincy arm band? Have Jõao Pedro currently

@rahul_prasad74 I definitely won't FH/WC this team. I think FH/WC is better for teams with a lot of underperformers/injuries. I'm going to wait for more data as well, the current plan is to WC in GW8. Captaincy - I would probably go Haaland over Pedro. On pens, he's the focal point for City

@BakchodFpl Tempted to FH but I can roll this. Thoughts?

@TheUnitedCloud I would roll and go for FH6 instead.

@BakchodFpl Best Sarr replacement? Joao Pedro, Munoz or Wirtz captain?

@Jimba_FC Sarr replacement - Semenyo/Kudus short term, Enzo/Paqueta long term. If no Salah, probably Pedro would be my next pick and then Munoz.