@timcolbourn I mostly agree, except for the support of UNRWA. (The problem isn't that they employed terrorists, it's that they have created and nurtured dependence on the lack of resolving the conflict, and breed corruption that entrenches never wanting a peace deal.)

@davidmanheim I’m not sure UNRWA has much of a say in whether there’s a peace deal? and with what’s going on now it’s very clear the Israeli government doesn’t want peace but rather total control and all the land in Gaza?

@timcolbourn Not directly, but the billions of dollars that come in to Hamas and PLO coffers are almost all directly or indirectly from UNRWA. This could be true of any aid, but UNRWA aid is premised on them remaining refugees - so they have perverse incentives to prevent a Palestinian state.

@timcolbourn And yes, at the same time, the current Israeli government has its own perverse incentives, and Bibi evidently doesn't want the war to end before the elections, and his coalition partners want to annex Gaza. But the UNRWA anti-peace dynamics have been present for decades as well.

@davidmanheim Ok, though it seems that whatever role UNRWA had or still has is very insignificant compared to Israel’s outsized role now where they are essentially making a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank impossible, and likely keeping the war going for decades to come :(

@timcolbourn The blame lies with both sides - Hamas has civilian hostages (some held by UNRWA employees) from a terrorist invasion past the internationally recognized Israeli borders, and has refused to release them in contravention of every international law and the ICJ's orders.

@timcolbourn Israel is certainly to blame as well, and has made the situation worse. But the lack of peace deals, including the undermining of regional peace, was an *explicit plan by Iran to stop the 2023 Saudi-Israeli peace deal* which would have pressured the PA to come to the table.

@davidmanheim Yes, though it goes back for many decades as you know with anti-peace actions on both sides not least the slow and now rapid expansion of land held by Israel making a Palestinian state less and less viable. What do you think could be a way forward now?

@timcolbourn The Arab world said unambiguously that Hamas needs to surrender Gaza. At this point, the only question is whether they hand Gaza to Israel, or to the PA / Arab League. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/0... Until then, Israel can't back down. After that, further de-escalation becomes possible.

@timcolbourn I'll also say that framing anything as "both sides" going back decades fundamentally misses the fact that the Palestinians are at least 3 distinct groups; The PA is backed by international community, Hamas is an Iranian proxy, and Palestinians civilians have no say in anything.

@timcolbourn It's easy to forget that while the last time Gazans had an election was 2005/6, that's also the last time Palestinians in the West bank had elections. Both are corrupt autocracies - the difference is that one is willing to work towards peace, per the Fayyad / Abbas plans.

@davidmanheim Good points, though with what’s going on in the West Bank too it seems that even if Hamas surrendered Gaza (which seems like it will happen soon de facto by Israel taking over Gaza) there wouldn’t be a clear route to a stable peace

@timcolbourn Removing Bibi's ability to continue the war would do a huge amount. But that only works if Hamas surrenders and hands over control - if there is instead an indefinite occupation combined with no viable governance in Gaza, I agree that there's no path forward.

@timcolbourn And both Bibi and Hamas would prefer the occupation to a deal - both of the sides responsible for continuing the conflict are political beneficiaries of the fight continuing, regardless of whether or not their stated aims are achievable.