1/ 📈 After bottoming in Jan, Haynesville rigs climbed steadily to 55 in Aug. That’s +20 rigs YTD, in line with our March Macro S&D call that drilling must accelerate to meet ~5 Bcf/d of new Gulf Coast LNG demand by 2026. 🧵
2/ 🔎 Rig adds are mostly privates, chasing above-breakeven gas prices. Majors (EXE, Aethon) remain flat. Rig-weighted avg breakeven across privates is ~$2.25/MMBtu, vs $2.50–$2.75 for larger operators.
3/ East Texas ➡️ 30 rigs active in July vs ~20-rig maintenance. Yet volumes are -0.2 Bcf/d YTD. The math implies a sharp DUC build—inventory swelling by ~150 wells since Jan.
4/ Louisiana ➡️ 22 rigs (maintenance), but output +1.0 Bcf/d since Jan. That equates to ~100 DUCs worked down in 2024, accelerating basin productivity despite flat drilling.
5/ Forecast: To balance 2026, we expect ~13 incremental rigs in LA and continued DUC liquidation in East TX. Without this, LNG-linked demand would outstrip supply by >2 Bcf/d.
6/ Midstream is racing ahead: LEAP throughput avg 1.8 Bcf/d in Aug, >2 Bcf/d peaks Williams’ LEG online late July, moving ~0.7 Bcf/d already Momentum NG3 (1.7 Bcf/d) in-service by YE25 → key for East TX de-bottlenecking
7/ Demand pull is real: ~5 Bcf/d new LNG capacity by 2026 Golden Pass +2.6 (ramping) Plaquemines +3.9 (40% utilization boost) Corpus Christi Stg 3 +2.2 (10% utilization boost)
8/ Supply-side caution: EXE holds rigs flat; messaging that other basins must shoulder part of LNG growth. Concerns: Haynesville IPs ~30% higher than Permian, but declines are ~2x steeper.
9/ Bottom line: With Haynesville holding back & other basins stretched, we see price appreciation as the forcing mechanism to unlock incremental rigs & molecules by 2026.
Btw this is in our weekly natural gas focused note, The Burner Tip, subscribe here: https://eds.eastdaley.com/subs...
@rleewilson21 How much of that was $ACDC? I know they have decent market share in the Haynesville
@rleewilson21 Also a sign that the US gas business no longer completely trusts the oil business to subsidize its upstream ambitions and obligations. Higher cost gas suggests additional support for Henry Hub prices. All good for now, as long as TTF/JKM are sky high. @ColumbiaUEnergy
No changes to this view. Good grief $IMO.TO has been a beast. Same for $TCW.TO $CNQ & $TOU.TO to play some catch up here.
What traders think imagine their job looks like vs. what it actually looks like:
No view here except - lmao.
Fuck the Fed and Trump. The potential for policy failure has increased dramatically. Don't make policy decisions based on spreadsheets, look at the lives of ordinary people for once. Costs are just starting to be shifted to companies, and consumers will suffer even more. And
