This is unprecedented: On August 22nd, President Trump announced that the US took a 10% stake in Intel, $INTC, worth ~$11 billion. Today, 27 days later, NVIDIA made a massive investment in Intel, sending the US' position +$5 BILLION higher. What just happened? (a thread)
Take a look at this, directly from Intel's website: The US government took a total investment of $11.1 billion in Intel, $8.9 billion of which was just purchased by the Trump Admin. The average share price on this $8.9 billion acquisition was $20.47/share just last month.
This morning, Nvidia, $NVDA, announced a $5 BILLION investment in Intel. This would be used to develop custom data centers and personal computing products. Intel's stock surged to $33.40+ pre-market, which put the Trump Administration's stake over +50% higher in 27 days.
But, the timeline gets even more interesting. On August 10th, reports emerged that the US government struck a "trade deal" with Nvidia and AMD. Nvidia and AMD agreed, with Trump, to provide the US with 15% of REVENUE from chip sales in China to remove export controls.
Exactly 3 days before that, President Trump made this post about Intel. Trump demanded Intel's CEO "resign immediately" because he is "conflicted." On August 12th, Intel's CEO visited Trump at the White House. We posted the day before that we believed a "deal" was coming.
Later that day, on August 12th, this headline emerged from Bloomberg. It was the first report of what ended up being the Trump Administration's 10% stake in Intel. NVIDIA's investment in Intel today puts the Trump Administration's stake over +$5 BILLION in the green.
This was an unprecedented investment by the US. And, China is clearly paying attention after they just banned companies from purchasing Nvidia chips just 24 hours ago. It is clear that chip companies have become the pawn of the US-China trade war. So, what does it all mean?
The AI Revolution is now entering its second inning. US-China trade relations have deteriorated amid the biggest technological revolution since the internet. 1 month in AI is like 1 year in anything else; it moves quickly. Chinese and US governments know this.
It also marks a new era for Intel: Just last month, Intel was a dying horse that appeared to have no signs of life. Now, Intel is set to build NVIDIA custom x86 CPUs that NVIDIA integrates into its AI platforms. This puts Intel at the forefront of the AI Revolution.
Both the US government and NVIDIA now have a vested interest in the success of Intel. With a combined stake of over $20 billion, the world's most dominant AI company and the US government won't let Intel fail. Intel has now added +$32 BILLION in market cap this morning.
We expect another major wave of AI CapEx as interest rates come down and AI advancement progresses. In fact, just under 50% of US GDP growth is now attributable to tech CapEx. While it may seem like AI has been around for a while, we believe it's still incredibly early.
AI is changing the entire investment landscape. As a result, the economy is shifting and its implications on stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable. Want to receive our premium analysis? Subscribe to access our premium analysis below: http://thekobeissiletter.com/s...
Lastly, we conclude with perspective on just how big AI has become. AI CapEx as a % of US GDP is larger than Telecom in 2020 and one of the largest since railroads in the 1880s. A lot of change is ahead of us. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
@KobeissiLetter What just happened is socialism haha. Although no one's going to admit it because they're all on the take. Hope everyone still feels good about a second Trump term. We all knew this was happening.
@KobeissiLetter Here is my thoughts on this: Nvidia is putting $5 billion into Intel, and the ripple effects are huge. Intel has been fighting for relevance after years of falling behind rivals, and this backing gives the company fresh credibility. For Nvidia, the move secures political
@KobeissiLetter Yea its called " insider trading "
@KobeissiLetter Trump must get a Nobel prize in the "The best insider trader of a century"
@KobeissiLetter This was easy to see and why I took a large position in $INTC. The 10% stake was too large for Intel not to outperform its peers in the short term. I think Intel's success will be a priority moving forward.
@KobeissiLetter Too bad they invested in a dead company, its been dead for years
@KobeissiLetter @grok is this insider trading?
@KobeissiLetter free money glitch no traders have.
@KobeissiLetter my trading strategy ⬇️Show more
@KobeissiLetter How can you hate this guy. Gave us the dip of a lifetime with tariffs, crypto scams are legal, and now INTC?
@KobeissiLetter When you say US has 10% who actually owns the shares? There is no sovereign wealth fund 🥸
@KobeissiLetter Well yah see…. The rich people in charge traded one Pokémon card. That card went into one of those Scottish sheep machines and cloned itself into a second card for the rich guy. Infinite money glitch
@KobeissiLetter This is bigger than markets. Semiconductors are the steel of the 21st century—every economy, every military, every future technology depends on them. the US is finally taking national security on chips seriously
@KobeissiLetter How isn't that a bubble supported by taxpayer money?
@KobeissiLetter intel is national security company, you cant let your semiconductor companies go down under. So Trump is pushing to bolster and jump start intel. per chart, people are bullish on intel
@KobeissiLetter China doesn't like buying from a company with a US federal government stake. Meanwhile, US companies operating in China have to create a joint venture with a Chinese company to sell into China. Seems a bit hypocritical.
@KobeissiLetter The US government won't look for a quick buck here & there. Of course, having the government's backing will attract more players in the market, and $NVDA’s been talking to $INTC for months already. Synergies are better sometimes, than competition too.
@KobeissiLetter Trump is a Businessman first, but no the less a presidential Boss 🫡🫵
@KobeissiLetter what happened to your thesis "Trump wants to engineer a recession" ?
@LoneKonig Yields were rising into a rapidly rising probability of a recession. The gameplan correctly changed.
@KobeissiLetter Public-private alignment rarely moves this fast












