@KobeissiLetter We're in a freight recession in the for-hire domestic market, but not a broad "goods collapse." Cass shows volumes declining again in August; rail/intermodal and ocean imports hold steady, with prices distorted by mix shifts. Think "long, grinding down-cycle" rather than a

@KobeissiLetter 🚨 This is the canary in the coal mine. While markets are distracted by AI hype, the Cass Freight Index is signaling a severe contraction in the real, physical economy. A 28 month decline doesn't happen in a healthy expansion. Why this data is a critical macro signal: ·

@KobeissiLetter Freight shipments collapsing 20% in 3 years isn’t just a logistics story, it’s a macro alarm. The last time we saw this was 2008 .. right before the system buckled. Freight is the bloodstream of the real economy, and when it constricts this hard, recessions don’t just knock, they

@KobeissiLetter When you notice this broken relationship: $IVE / $IVW spreads vs $CL crude oil prices You will figure out that the market isn't buying into the $SPY $QQQ growth story anymore You see it in freight, shipping, housing etc. It's a house of cards now ☕️

@KobeissiLetter Cass Freight Index shows U.S. goods movement still in recession. August shipments fell 9.3 % Y/Y and are 20 % below 2022 levels —the lowest since 2020. After rising in 2021, the index has declined every year since, underscoring a long freight downturn . This mirrors the

@KobeissiLetter Tesla semi’s platooning will eventually disrupt all human driven trucks in US as well as begin chipping at rail.. just a matter of time..🤷🏻‍♂️

@KobeissiLetter The market is not trading with the rest of the economy… we get a negative jobs number next Friday this market will be fast and furious to the downside

@KobeissiLetter How long can buybacks and circle-jerks between the techbros levitate this clown show? "Retail" providing plenty of exit liquidity, as usual.

@KobeissiLetter Interesting how this hasn't translated to consumer spending yet. Wonder what's causing the disconnect?

@KobeissiLetter The largest generation is retiring they don't need stuff, and the younger generations aren't having kids and don't want stuff, they would rather have experiences.

@KobeissiLetter AI doesn't need goods.

@KobeissiLetter LTL freight? 'Cause the latest earnings from FedEx showed Domestic Express freight increased along with Intra Europe and Asia to Europe?

@KobeissiLetter “We’re going to make so much money on tariffs”

@KobeissiLetter overlay it with ism services new orders and you'll get nervous

@KobeissiLetter U.S. economy’s biggest driver right now isn’t households spending– it’s data centers. Without AI, Q1 GDP would have been a contraction, Q2 a modest rebound, and the first half of 2025 treading water.

@KobeissiLetter The most salient part of this chart is that it's been in decline since 2022 - so not due to recent economic policies, but rather a prolongued slowing that will bottom out shortly.

@KobeissiLetter @grok please explain how this is happening since the USA is clearly not in a recession?

@KobeissiLetter See? I’ve been saying it all along… With the paper money you hold, you can’t buy materials, you can’t make anything, and you certainly can’t eat it. But if you’ve got gold… well then… haha.

@KobeissiLetter Since July it’s been a full on collapse No one is prepared

@KobeissiLetter Freight weakness confirms deflationary pressures building in goods economy. Transportation prices dropped 6.9 points to 56.1 in August lowest since April 2024. Container imports remain elevated but domestic freight collapses, suggesting import substitution for weak domestic

@KobeissiLetter Previous two in that chart are sharp declines Current one seems more like a controlled demolition. Still steep, but with brief pauses

@KobeissiLetter Every fucking reply to this post.

@KobeissiLetter How are the pokemon shipments doing?

@KobeissiLetter If goods ain’t moving, money ain’t moving. People better stop pretending everything’s fine

@KobeissiLetter We’re seeing a perfect storm: soft demand from trade uncertainty, a shift from less-than-truckload to truckload, and macro softness all dragging freight volumes lower. This isn’t just a logistics story—manufacturing and industrial slowdowns amplify the pain, while rising rates

@KobeissiLetter And the markets ATH 😵‍💫

@KobeissiLetter Even my Amazon packages moving faster than the US freight index 📦😂 #Economy

@KobeissiLetter Hello. Here is the AAR Freight Rail Index for comparison.

@KobeissiLetter Sooner people realize the recession is here the sooner we can acknowledge and get it together!!!

@KobeissiLetter Tarriffs will do that lol

@KobeissiLetter This is highly deflationary

@KobeissiLetter Almost no containerships anchored off US ports.

@KobeissiLetter freight recession alarm bells ringing time to buckle up

@KobeissiLetter 28 months of recession? Wild. 😮

@KobeissiLetter 👀

@KobeissiLetter wtf that drop is insane almost reaching covid lockdown levels