Russia would likely begin a war against NATO at extremely high intensity. Knowing it cannot win in the long term, Russia's goal would be to inflict as many casualties as possible along the frontline, even at the cost of much higher losses on its own side, in the hope that
@FRHoffmann1 Likely?? If you are not so sure do not scare the hell out of a public which is already scared to death. Whose intentions do you believe you are advancing?
@ischinger Personally, I'm pretty certain, but I don't have a crystal ball. We may differ in our views here, but my assumption is that the best we can do for our societies is to be frank and prepare them for the worst-case scenario.
@FRHoffmann1 Governments need to prepare for the worst case, indeed! The public, however, needs to be reassured the worst will not happen because government spends huge amounts to continue to provide for credible and functioning deterrence.
@ischinger In my view, there can be no societal resilience without an informed public, or at least it becomes significantly harder to achieve. I recently gave a three-day intensive seminar to an interdisciplinary group of German students on nuclear strategy and nuclear war. Afterwards, I
@FRHoffmann1 Academic Deep Dive : YES, of course. Urgent. Public Discourse: make sure you dont feed the crocodile. . .
@ischinger @FRHoffmann1 this is not the 80s,academic deep dive is pzblicly visible to anyone interested now,and thats a good thing.
@ischinger @FRHoffmann1 On the other hand “reassuring the public the worst won’t happen” doesn’t seem a good option and will make our populous only more uninformed, docile, risk averse and opposing any meaningful preparation. And would an academic deep dive not be public?