Just by way of background, when I first came across media reports like this one, I didn’t really understand the concern expressed by @INDOPACOM. It seemed theoretical possible & important to prepare for something like this, but overall an unlikely scenario https://www.taipeitimes.com/Ne...

@INDOPACOM After all, superb indications and warning intelligence would almost certainly be available in the prelude to a PRC attack on Taiwan. It reportedly was before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. https://www.politico.com/news/...

@INDOPACOM So what’s the big deal? I had written about the topic before and thought I had a descent grasp of it. But clearly I was missing something. Made me curious.

@INDOPACOM How common are surprise attacks historically? How often do they succeed? How do they work? What does PLA doctrine teach? Has it ever conducted a successful surprise amphibious assault? Are there units in China that specialize in the dark arts of military deception?

@INDOPACOM The main findings: (1) The PLA views deception as a force multiplier and war-winning weapon. The PLA leadership reserves a special place of veneration for wartime commanders who can employ deception to obtain surprise, something Xi Jinping refers to as “excelling at stratagem.”

@INDOPACOM (2) In 1955, the PLA launched a surprise attack on the Yijiangshan islands, then controlled by the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taipei. This campaign remains a case study in the PRC for how to conduct amphibious operations and catch defenders off guard.

@INDOPACOM (3) Empirical historical research shows that amphibious operations, while complex and difficult to conduct, almost always achieve their objectives. The critical factor is the shock they cause, and that is often enhanced by deception.

@INDOPACOM (4) PLA textbooks and field manuals explicitly link the difficulty of a future Taiwan invasion with the need to embrace unconventional approaches. They exhort officers at all levels of command to use deception.

@INDOPACOM (5) Advanced intelligence and surveillance technologies do not make a surprise attack on Taiwan unachievable. A zero-warning invasion remains virtually impossible, but it is also unnecessary from the PLA’s perspective.

@INDOPACOM (6) Chinese military researchers envision employing robots, containerized missiles, and unmanned amphibious vehicles to confuse and unbalance Taiwan’s defenders in a future war.

@INDOPACOM (7) American and Taiwanese strategists should account for unique ways the PLA may attempt to achieve the element of surprise and plan against those courses of action.

@INDOPACOM (8) War games, simulations, and field exercises that account for a surprise attack on Taiwan could generate insights and help senior leaders rethink the levels of risk associated with current and possible future defense postures.

@INDOPACOM (9) Immediate steps should be taken to cope with deception and minimize reaction times so that any sudden amphibious landings on Taiwan, while dramatic, will not be decisive.

@Ian_M_Easton @DMBrookfield Eye opening thread for sure

@Ian_M_Easton @AlexLuck9

@Ian_M_Easton Would love to host you on my podcast to discuss

@Ian_M_Easton Its really hard to hide a surprise attack of the level of magnitude needed to gain a lodgment in Taiwan. The Russian forces mobilizing to invade Ukraine were recognized very early.

@Ian_M_Easton Don’t forget, every one of their ships is technically apart of the military. If it’s a surprise attack, it’ll start from “commercial” ships first.

@Ian_M_Easton Great work Ian! Thanks for the inspiring research!

@Ian_M_Easton All possibilities must be considered, @Ian_M_Easton , yes. No one in 1989 thought the CCP would open fire on its own Chinese students, but it did. The CCP has both planned responses and erratic ones, so anything is possible.

@Ian_M_Easton The Chinese Invasion Threat is a phenomenal, perhaps seminal imo, book on the practicalities of a PLA cross-strait attack

@Ian_M_Easton 2/ Instead - if there’s a way to link this with MND’s (and indeed all service branches) current and major deficiency of operational planning & execution, the unfamiliarity with MDMP, let alone contingencies for decentralized command and operation, it’ll make the point stronger.

@Ian_M_Easton All the analogs in this piece are from the mid 1900's. In the modern era it would be impossible to hide a strategic level amphibious invasion. Maybe on a smaller scale but not for the big one.

@Ian_M_Easton @grok when is Chinas invasion of Taiwan likely to happen?

@Ian_M_Easton China simply needs to drive US military forces out of Asia, and the rest will follow naturally. A war between China and the US is inevitable. China is confident in its ability to defeat the US and hopes that the US is equally confident.Let's have a war.

@Ian_M_Easton I think the conversation revolves around how many casualties do PLA planners expect to stomach on the civilian and military side. The PRC could have a total battlefield victory become worthless if they need to field 3 million troops to occupy their newly annexed island province.

@Ian_M_Easton 1/4 First, looking at your main findings: 1. "Veneration" [piety] is a sure path to a dead end. 2. Are you comparing the Yijiangshan Islands with Taiwan Island ? Perhaps you deserve sympathy ? 3. You know, SERIOUS studies of amphibious operations indicate that they must be very⬇️

@Ian_M_Easton China would definitely do a WWII on us, but I'd expect the sneak attack to be multi domain. Naval, Air and Space.

@Ian_M_Easton take PKX-B ships as a baseline for a Navy ATB and preposition barges of mines that are self propelled in the tons.... one could mine at crazy scale within 24 hours, including obvious mines that would force a recalculation

@Ian_M_Easton Xis window of invasion is long gone. Taiwan is prepared like an armadillo. CCP can only hold impressive parades all they want. They will Huff and puff all they want until their breaths run out. Take a good long vacation Xi.

@Ian_M_Easton The signs will be there. The only is if we will take them seriously and act.

@Ian_M_Easton 1/ Great work as always Ian - though Im more afraid of the fact that MND is gonna read this as “well we already accounted for PLA “由演轉戰” so they don’t have to care about this.

@Ian_M_Easton Mfw boiling the frog has consequences

@Ian_M_Easton @NavalWarCollege I think Taiwan has been a bit naive. After Ukraine, anything is on the table.

@Ian_M_Easton @AnnYeahAnn 你研究的方向错了，中国军事发展的假想敌一直就是美国，别以为美国可以利用台湾和打代理人战争这样的想法很幼稚。中国政府宣布过不打代理人战争，这句话的意思是只要美国介入，中国会直接和美国开战。毕竟清除第二岛链内所有的美军基地打的价值要比拿下台湾大的多。中国已具备这样的能力你别自欺欺人了

@Ian_M_Easton If USA and Israel attacks Iran, China invades Taiwan.