And Aberdeen have scored none goals (0) from an Expected Goals... of 6.09 😂 That is the worst underperformance I think I have ever seen this early in a season from any team in any league

Expected Goals Against is kinda fine, a little underperformance but that's normal. And mid table for shots on goal is not ideal, but fine. But what isn't normal is a shot on target rate... of 23.1%

Aberdeen's chance creation - by my eyes - appears to be almost exclusively get the ball to wingers who fire low crosses across the box. They are almost always blocked And I don't know what to make of the fact we've had the lowest number of headed shots of any one

cos headed shots aren't a great way of consistently scoring, keeping it on the deck is the best idea (IMO), so this is good. But what about corners and other set pieces?

The statistics show us, I think, what it is Thelin wants: Most "through passes" played And 3rd most dribbles attempted Which means he wants the ball played in behind to space and players to run at and take on opponents, before drilling it low into the box

What concerns me is the lack of composure on the ball in midfield. We never get 2, 3, 4, 5 passes in a row and move up the pitch. There are some structural things I don't like (won't bother with that now) which are relevant but often times what I see is...

a midfielder deep to help with build up but never really progressing it other midfielders/forwards too far away leaving a gap between lines that nobody utilises poor accuracy & weight of pass, simple little sideways passes hard to control that just disrupt the flow of a move

Which is probably why... Aberdeen have the 3rd lowest progressive passes AND the 2nd worst progressive pass accuracy. Aberdeen basically can't - or don't - get the ball forward in a progressive way without sending it in behind for someone to run on to

BUT The underlying numbers tell us that Aberdeen are much better than it currently looks. Should be 5th right now. xG numbers usually correct over time, if players just score 1 goal, then 2 or 3, confidence might return and all of a sudden this works really well

Forwards aren't taking their chances. Wingers aren't creating good enough chances. Midfielders aren't able to progress play with passing (might be structural issue for this tbf). And players are low on confidence and not cohesive

It needs *something* to galvanise it all cos atm this looks like it could keep getting worse. Even with underlying numbers telling us it's fine, that's what happens when big teams have bad seasons. So no panic yet. There is clear style. It is working... just can't see it

@jj_bull Which proves Xg is a load of bollox!

@jj_bull How the fuck does that work 😂😂😂 scored more and conceded less that hibs but more expected points😂

@jj_bull All this statistical stuff is rubbish invented by people to get them a job or make them look good. As they say in American football look at the scoreboard it tells you who has won.

@jj_bull Problem is, if players don't win the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd ball. You lose football games. The basics are miles off it atm, ongoing since November/December time. The whole pre season & transfer window pointed to this start we have had. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

@jj_bull I am not watching the games but not sure I ever see a report where we are actually dominating for a spell. Seems like it’s either scrappy or bad.

@jj_bull Good stuff JJ. There’s no Plan B, and Plan A doesn’t work against the top flight opposition formations and tactics. Jimmy is close to the edge now.

@jj_bull I think the main issue is the midfield, the dictate the tempo and progression. The fact Thelin keeps changing CM shows this. And I don’t think Nisbet is the right fit for the role he’s asked to play. Defensively we actual look better than before (still not perfect).

@jj_bull I think it's all a cunning ruse to create a new stat for when we do eventually score - unexpectedGoals

@jj_bull Good analysis JJ. He is criticised for the formation but he keeps chopping and changing personnel. There is no consistency in selection. He just doesn’t seem to know best team (in particular midfield two) to play the way he wants to.

@jj_bull We don't really have a Settled midfield/ not playing together at all. It seems like a team of individuals at the moment

@jj_bull Big gorgeous Ivan Dolcek top of the scoring charts. What a time to be alive.

@jj_bull Statistics only work long term... And long term may be really long 😀😀😀😀

@jj_bull Statistics are like mini skirts

@jj_bull @_VitaminT__ Thanks so much for this - this team just needs a change of luck - all ‘great’ teams are lucky (as well as good) - I saw it in the truly great teams of the 80s. Without the red cards, hitting woodwork we could be mid table and perhaps even in the Europa league?

@jj_bull Thanks, fantastic read and analysis.

@jj_bull I mean, it’s pretty obvious that the answer is to play Clarkson from the start every game and let him get going

@jj_bull What are your thoughts on Milanovic? He was my local team's best player last season. Will be a huge loss for us

@heavy_sunshine I think he's great! With better support around him he'll be magic

@jj_bull Feels very similar to Hibs last season

@jj_bull Thanks for at least giving us a little hope!

@jj_bull Superb piece min!

@jj_bull xG = 🚮

@jj_bull