As always, remember to bookmark this one 👆 Alright, guys, I have the time management skills of a carrot Plus, it's a wildcard week for me, which takes up quite some time So, this will be a much shorter version of my usual preview—next week, it will be business as usual

🔶 It's only 5 GWs, folks I do a lot of doomscrolling on FPL X during the week, and quite frankly, there are always at least several myths or misconceptions to debunk At this stage of the season, many managers tend to draw overly strong conclusions from a small sample of data

You know, those "Sunderland are great defence" quotes without mentioning that they played West Ham, Burnley, Brentford, and Aston Villa All teams that struggle greatly with creating chances—just look at the most vital data metrics They only played one team that...

... works well offensively, and they visibly struggled defensively Sure, their defenders are £4.0m, and have Wolves at home in GW8 However, are they much better than Leeds defenders, or are they worth owning instead of a long-term £4.5m DEF in your team? Another example:

Manchester United have accumulated 8.56 non-penalty xG The 2nd-best, just behind Manchester City True, but they farmed 42% (!) of it against Burnley in Gameweek 3 Example #3: Brighton's players' numbers are currently quite uninspiring But they faced Fulham, Everton, City...

... Bournemouth, and Spurs, which isn't a very favourable run However, they are soon entering a much better one—perhaps there's some signal hidden within it... After 5 GWs, there are definitely some signals if you contextualise properly Because there's still a lot of noise...

🔶 The best budget midfielders I'll be boring here—I like Tijjani Reijnders (£5.7m) the most, which is hardly surprising: • With Marmoush and Cherki still injured, he's a 90-minute man (100% success rate so far) • Sufficient final product • BUR and bre next • Long-term pick

• Plays for a team that creates a massive volume of dangerous chances I also still rate Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who's just £5.0m He takes set-pieces, which you'll mainly appreciate during the upcoming West Ham fixture The goal threat is lacking so far, but hey, it's £5 million

If you also own an Everton defender, his appeal grows Yankuba Minteh, for just £5.9m, is an incredible value, if you ask me His offensive threat is significantly higher than that of other players valued under £6 million, and the upcoming fixtures look pretty favourable

He can both score and assist, plus just 1.2% managers own him The wildcard bandwagon, Anton Stach (£5.0m)? I'm hyping that guy since July—see the excerpt from my pre-season deep dive below (Seriously, why are you not reading the Data Dribble already?) Leeds' fixtures are...

... quite solid, and he takes most set-pieces, so for that price, I certainly don't mind it if he fits into your plans (team-dependent alert) I have Reijnders, Minteh, and KDH higher in the pecking order, though Moises Caicedo—I admire him as a player, and he's the...

... the best DEFCON midfielder in the game However, I don't see him regularly contributing in terms of goals or assists It's too dull for me I don't mind cheering for defcons when it comes to my defenders, but much less for midfield players Also, Georginio and...

... Minteh cost almost the same Then there's Jaidon Anthony, a £5.5m Burnley MID, who has been posting some of the best xG numbers in the league so far Which is crazy Unfortunately, we don't know whether he's able to maintain them As for Anderson, Dango, Paquetá, Wharton...

... and others, not my favourites at the moment But the landscape can shift quite quickly, so I suggest that you keep track of them all regularly

🔶 Wildcard template picks I don't like that much It's not that I would hate them, but I have some reservations... 🔹 David Raya (£5.6m) I'm not usually a fan of £5.6m GKs, but I can see the appeal given the context Context = utilising one of the best defences in the world...

... without having xMins risk in your team, because only Gabriel is truly nailed But that's not what I'm questioning It's rather this: are we really sure we won't like the Saka & Gyökeres double up later on? It's a weird season offensively, and premiums are either not...

... fit enough or performing poorly, so it's not a bizarre idea to me At the moment, I am considering whether I want this flexibility or not 🔹 Iliman Ndiaye (£6.5m) Look, that West Ham game is juicy, and I might look like a clown very soon, but man... I'm still not convinced

I wasn't during the pre-season, and the first five games of the season didn’t do much to change my mind He’s regarded by many as a major goal threat But where is that threat exactly? Historically, he's someone with a tiny volume of shots, and he, once again, averages 0.80...

... attempts per game this season He scored 2 goals, but both were from counters, and he has no shots against a deeper block In the next 7 GWs, there aren’t many opponents likely to concede many shots from counters There are penalties (potentially), and an undeniable DEFCON...

... prospects, so he's likely still a solid pick I just don't think he's THAT impressive after West Ham 🔹 Josko Gvardiol (£5.8m) It's nice to attack short-term fixtures with MIDs and FWDs With Josko here, I'm not that sure While City work well offensively, they have some...

... issues at the back Pep’s mid-block is now less compact than in the past And when opponents bypass it, City are pushed back and must protect their box for longer spells—they concede quite a lot of chances from positional attacks Also, they still concede from counters

That said, there's some DEFCON value, though I'm not certain about the attacking threat For that price, he doesn't seem too appealing to me long-term For 6 & 7, obviously fine if you have some FTs saved and a plan

🔶 Data Dribble: Comprehensive Wildcard Guide In the free edition of my newsletter, I discussed the lack of Premier League goals and Alexander Isak In premium: • How I built my wildcard, step by step • Bruno, Brighton & Bandwagons – Solving the FPL wildcard attack ❗7-day

That’s a wrap! If you enjoyed this one: 1. Follow me at @11filipnovak for more regular content 2. Consider subscribing to the Data Dribble newsletter 3. Repost the post below to share it with your audience 👇

@11filipnovak Your thread is everybody's favorite! #TopUnroll https://threadreaderapp.com/th... 🙏🏼@zimfpl for 🥇unroll

@11filipnovak Good info there. Currently on Ndiaye and Simons on my WC but with a weak defence. Minteh could solve that, which one of Simons and Ndiaye would you take out?

@11filipnovak That was short, I love the lengthy read. Anyways thanks Filip Good luck this week 🙂

@11filipnovak What would you do here with 3FTs?

@11filipnovak Concise thread as always 👏🏽 Kindly follow back too 🙏