@unclebobmartin Maybe but every time I heard a bubble is about to pop it seems more wishful thinking than actual objectivity. Lots of companies will go down yes but it's not going away and its only going to get more efficient.

@_irusensei Bubble pops are financial, not technological. The technology will continue to advance.

@unclebobmartin I'm curious what is your hypothesis leading to the AI bubble is going to pop? Personally, I don't see AI taking over engineers yet. But I don't see it as a bubble, more like a generational change where we all have to start adapting or get left behind. Companies laying off stuff

@maxgoh222 I’m just looking at the financial speculation. This is a pattern we’ve seen many times before. Everyone bets on the come, and then bails when it doesn’t come soon enough.

@unclebobmartin What do you think the chances are for it to burst within the next 1/3/5 years?

@thomas_prikryl I give it 6 months.

@unclebobmartin Hmm 🤔 I’ll bet people said the same thing when the internet came along. Sure, there might be a correction. Some hype will fade, some companies won’t last. But the tech itself won’t ‘pop.’ Like the internet, AI will reshape everything and keep growing.

@gorhal True. And yet the dotcom bubble burst all the same.

@unclebobmartin I don’t think we understand the term ‘bubble’ the same way. Organizations may be expecting some promise to be fulfilled, but I’m not convinced that this constitutes a bubble.

@ajoman A bubble is an over investment on the come. Everybody rushes to be the most invested in the hopes that they’ll dominate the come. When the come doesn’t come they divest as rapidly as possible, and the bubble bursts.

@unclebobmartin I understand you define the attitude of "AI will replace devs" as the "AI bubble". I have a more nuanced take: AI has made me more productive. Therefore if my employer wants to reduce headcount while maintaining the level of productivity, they can. But it's a loser's approach.

@DanShappir That is not my definition. I view the AI bubble as financial. The replacement theory is crackpot utopianism.

@unclebobmartin Words well said Robert. Hey there may be a surge in Kotlin giving its ability to talk to most anything.

@paulalanleroy Maybe, though I’m betting on Clojure.

@unclebobmartin So like the opposite of a normal bubble pop that kills hiring?

@Zergleb Right.

@unclebobmartin Lol I’ll be back in a year to see how this holds

@0004_31 I’ll be here.

@unclebobmartin I think this is optimistic. The bubble will burst and wipe out entire companies. Why? They shifted every process to sit on top of the bed of sand that is AI. You can't recover from that by just hiring back devs.

@kenogulabz There are those who over invested, and they will struggle. There are many others who just held their cash on the sidelines waiting to see how things shook out. When they decide to invest again, it will be to hire more programmers.

@unclebobmartin No, programming isn’t coming back. If/when it pops the industries it hasn’t eaten through will obviously stick around for a while in terms of hiring, but the latest models crush mid-tier programming jobs. People like yourself just don’t know how to use them yet so are confused.

@unclebobmartin If the bubble pops hiring isn't going to suddenly go up. It will go down.

@unclebobmartin The bubble is the hype but the implementation that follows will surpas the hype. Some companies are pushing slop code with poor AI implementations. It won't be long before the implementations evolve, the models improve (not that much is needed over top tier current models). It

@unclebobmartin I don't think some of you see the work behind closed doors. I'm about to unveil a system upon the world with verifiable credentials allowing AI automation to prove it's ability to do a job before it can even touch the controls for said job. Verifiable Certification.

@unclebobmartin There are too many (overvalued) AI companies; all of them won’t survive… and too many companies becoming pre-maturely over-invested in AI. You only need a handful of companies to reach AGI (or near AGI) and then you don’t really need a majority of the rest to do AI themselves,

@unclebobmartin We were lied to for years the capabilities of AI, all of the predictions were lies and the burn rate for investors is too much to bear for them. The bubble is truly bursting. Open AI, the biggest AI company is loosing $12.9 billion a year with no profit in sight until after 2029

@unclebobmartin >the AI bubble is totally going to pop >no one I mean no one will use AI anymore >it's all hype no one is actually using AI >there's no actual demand for AI it's all smoke >all of the middle managers are finally going to be re-hired

@unclebobmartin As someone who has been in the thick of things. I think the financial bubble will pop, and stocks like Nvidia, and Palantir will go back down to realistic valuations. However, you cannot deny the productivity gains that LLM models unlock. One senior engineer can do the work of

@unclebobmartin Uncle Bob, I don’t think you know what you’re talking about. AI is over-hyped. Forget dot-com. Remember cloud? Execs seduced each other with the word. What did we learn? Only those who’ve used it end-to-end know it’s extremely expensive for small & mid-size companies. For many,