A regional war in the horn of Africa between many actors I talked about Sudan🇸🇩, about Somalia🇸🇴, about Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and about South Sudan 🇸🇸. All these conflicts are in fact a larger regional war between local and foreign powers, we can see this map with Sudan 🧵THREAD🧵1/11 ⬇️
The war in Sudan is opposing the army led by Al Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Hemetti. However this cannot be only seen as a local civil war. Its implications are wider. Same for the Ethiopian, Somalian and South Sudanese conflicts.
The SAF allies : -Turkiye 🇹🇷 -Egypt 🇪🇬 -TPLF (Tigray rebel forces in Ethiopia)🇪🇹 -SPLM-N (South Sudan Nuer rebellion of Machar) -Iran 🇮🇷 -Qatar 🇶🇦 -Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 (traditionnaly, but with more neutral position currently)
The RSF allies : -UAE 🇦🇪 -Chad🇹🇩 + tribal forces -LNA Haftar forces 🇱🇾 + tribal forces -CAR 🇨🇫 + tribal forces -South Sudan 🇸🇸 -Ethiopia 🇪🇹 -SPLM-N (local rebels in Sudan)
An axis as formed with a wide alliance between Egypt, Sudan army, Erytrea and Somalian government against Ethiopia. We can be 100% sure all for are allies and they are also helped by Turkiye, which is also plaing it's own game, in Libya or Ethiopia.
On the other hand, les United Arab Emirates strategy is based around some regional countries and rebellion : -Ethiopia 🇪🇹 -Puntland and Somaliland separatist states of Somalia🇸🇴 -RSF of Sudan 🇸🇩 -Kiir government in South Sudan 🇸🇸 -CAR 🇨🇫 -Chad 🇹🇩 -Libya's Haftar 🇱🇾
If we apply the current wars in the region, we can easily see the rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia, between Turkiye and the UAE and between local actors.
For example : Sudan Army supports the Tigray rebels against Ethiopia (because Ethiopia sided with the RSF), it also supports the SPLM-iO, with an historical alliance in South Sudan. More or less, alliances can be seen in 2 main groups in the region.
The United Arab Emirates have been widely using all those countries as supply hubs for the war in Sudan, but also selling them drones, armoured vehicles and supporting their local war.
Thus, to understand the Fano rebellion in Amhara, you have to know that this region is a close ally to Eritrea, while Tigray is historically close to Sudan. Now that Ethiopia is willing to access the sea with Oromo domination, and knowing Tigray and Amhara are ennemies, all the
Yet, I didn't even mentionned the implication of Israël, Rwanda, Uganda or Kenya in these conflicts, but it gives you an idea of how difficult it can be to assess the local situation and international alliances. Thanks for following, don't forget you can ask some questions !
@clement_molin Again good maps. The Oromo a, in Ethiopia is also highly unstable and fights.
@clement_molin I thought Western Tigray was under FANO? Did the ENDF take it over?
@clement_molin Most of your information is unavailable and the sources of information are also unknown. Do you have confirmation?
@clement_molin Pourquoi faire vos publications en anglais ? Vous êtes, nous lecteurs sommes français Aux autres d'utiliser les traducteurs et à s'adapter un peu
@clement_molin @threadreaderapp please unroll
@clement_molin @threadreaderapp unroll
@clement_molin You cannot compress different conflicts/wars involving different actors with different motives into One single so-called regional conflict,was this analysis done out of boredom? Lol
@clement_molin Great thread. Also Socotra can be marked in UAE colors!
@clement_molin Not accurate
@clement_molin I believe alot of the rsf top brass including hemedti live in Nairobi.
@clement_molin Why Amharas are fighting back the ethnofascist regime of @AbiyAhmedAli