Getting tactically cautious. Seeing some late-cycle sun flares that typically precede at least *some* transient pain Near impossible to get structurally bearish when rates are for sure going to 0.00% & federal deregulatory thrust is higher than ever in my lifetime, but still...
I'm not very close to quantum at all, but I covered hardware on both the sell & buy side for over 10y These things REEK $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT Sure, they'll prob go up another triple digits. But they end lower Real executives don't say crap like this https://x.com/MartinShkreli/st...
I mean...cmon https://x.com/commonsenseplay/...
AI datacenter buildout prob has a mini bubble too. I actually do think the net investment will pay off, top down. But there will be extreme pain outside the inbound lines. The math doesn't math for the long tail, & $GLXY would know. https://x.com/RealJimChanos/st...
Meanwhile, actual, idiosyncratic macro & micro narrative cracks are flaring. This type of black & white narrative x price action dispersion is always worth monitoring IMO. https://x.com/blondesnmoney/st...
This sure seems problematic for $CVNA + $ALLY types! https://x.com/WSJ/status/19725...
Sidebar: This is one of the only charts to watch from @stlouisfed for the next few quarters. Jobs for new grads are evaporating. For whatever reason (AI. It's AI.) https://x.com/kellangrenier/st...
Negative sun flares cont. https://x.com/TedHZhang/status...
This is secured credit. Blackstone. Secured Lending Fund. SECURED. Not great! h/t @dailydirtnap
These actually make fundamental sense, but still. A good mile marker for where we are, at least intra-cycle. https://x.com/blondesnmoney/st...
It's always sus when they start posting PnL & no risk metrics (sharpe, stdev, risk adj alpha, beta, r2). But when they whip out the Max lookback (~18mo??) vs. $SPX(!!) & tag 10-vol tickers? Oy vei... https://x.com/arny_trezzi/stat...
L12m Factor performance https://x.com/modestproposal1/...
2x levered rebalancing momentum ETF! I mean touché, but this will lead to crocodile tears. And I'm long several components, many LTCG eligible. https://x.com/SchweickeFund/st...
Obligatory: I'm probably midcurving the 💩 out of this & should just listen to my original QT (and the QT therein).
Godspeed all. Mind your leverage.