What is happening? The S&P 500 is up +40% in 6 months, Gold is nearing $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin hit a record $2.5 TRILLION market cap. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is set for its WORST year since 1973. Are markets THAT strong or is the US Dollar just crashing? (a thread)
Yesterday, on a casual Saturday night, Bitcoin surged to $125,000, a new all time high. This makes Bitcoin worth a record $2.5 trillion. Meanwhile, gold has hit 40 record highs in 2025 and is now worth a whopping $26.3 TRILLION. That's more than 10 TIMES the value of Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, take a look at Silver, worth $2.7 TRILLION and up over +60% YTD. Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin are now all in the top 10 largest assets in the world. These are all typically viewed as safe haven assets which rise when stocks fall. But, take a look at equity markets.
The S&P 500 is up +39% in 6 months, adding $16 TRILLION of market cap. The Nasdaq 100 is up for 6 STRAIGHT months which has only happened 6 times since 1986. And, the Magnificent 7 companies are investing a record $100B+ per quarter in CapEx to fuel the AI Revolution.
In fact, SAFE HAVEN assets are now trading with record high correlation to stocks. The correlation coefficient between Gold and the S&P 500 reached a record 0.91 in 2024. This means that Gold and the S&P 500 were moving in TANDEM 91% of the time. So, what is happening?
There is a widespread rush into assets happening right now. As inflation rebounds and the labor market weakens, the Fed is CUTTING rates. The USD is now on track for its worst year since 1973, down over -10% YTD. The USD has lost -40% of its purchasing power since 2000.
Take a look at this: The Fed is cutting rates into 4.0% annualized inflation since 2020. And, the Fed is cutting rates into 2.9%+ Core PCE inflation for the first time since the 1990s. What's really happening here is assets are pricing in a NEW era of monetary policy.
That's the only case that makes sense. When safe haven assets, risky assets, real estate, and inflation are all rising together, its a macro-based shift. Here are MARKET-BASED inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years. The Fed has ZERO control of long-term yields.
Simultaneously, we are in the biggest technological revolution since the internet. So, you have investors looking to defend against a Fed pivot into inflation all as the AI Revolution heats up. Asset owners are winning. The widespread rush into ALL assets is accelerating.
As we have been warning, this will only result in a widening of the historic US wealth divide. The bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. As the rush into assets ramps up, those who own assets will win and everyone else will be left behind.
Markets are more reactive and dynamic than ever. As a result, the macroeconomy is shifting and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are tradable and investable. Want to receive our premium analysis? Subscribe to access our premium analysis below: http://thekobeissiletter.com/s...
Lastly, this chart summarizes what's happening. Since ChatGPT was released in November 2022, job openings have plummeted while stocks have soared. We are in the midst of a generational macroeconomic shift. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
@KobeissiLetter This has been the biggest short squeeze since the meme stock era back in 2021.
@sophos_alpha The last 6-months' rush into assets has been unprecedented.
@KobeissiLetter It’s a silent vote of no confidence in the currency everything’s priced in
@Web3BeauCedric We can't change the game, we can only position for what's next.
@KobeissiLetter Hard assets are becoming the safe haven.
@jordanmthy Correct.
@KobeissiLetter The market isn’t just “strong” it’s inflated by weakening dollar strength. Gold up 46% S&P 500 up 40% Bitcoin hits $2.5T But DXY down nearly -11% in the same window. 🙄 When the unit of measurement (USD) collapses, everything priced in it looks stronger. This isn’t a bull
@KobeissiLetter Investors love US assets but don't like the US$. But this is contradictory. The massive AI investment only makes sense if there's massive ROI in GDP. If that's true then we will outgrow our debt worries, the dollar debasement trade will lose & the dollar will rise again
@KobeissiLetter Worth mentioning: If we see a credit crisis in the U.S., you actually want to have dollars.
@KobeissiLetter It’s down in Bitcoin and gold. If you use real money as the denominator the S&P goes down every year.
@KobeissiLetter Here what’s happening but just in the US and at a slower pace. Money printer (and credit) go brrr. If you use dollar denominated metrics to measure growth, profitability and the magnitude of markets without considering the impact of so many new dollars in the system, things
@KobeissiLetter See if history repeats
@KobeissiLetter I am hoping that what we are seeing is actually the activation of trillions of dollars that never should have been printed still floating around aimlessly in the economy. OBBB and the fed signaling a willingness to lower rates a little bit could mean that people finally have a
@KobeissiLetter A weak dollar is strategic for the new administration’s policy goals. Higher and faster peak to trough in 2025 than 2017 under Trump 1.0, but same -11.5% from Election Day. A perpetually stronger dollar (compared to other currencies, but perpetually losing purchasing power)
@KobeissiLetter It seems that we are on track to experience the first ever global multi-asset class blowoff top of the greatest speculative manias in human history. The Everything Bubble is going MUCH higher than anyone anticipated uniting Stocks, Cryptos, Housing and now even Gold and Silver.
@KobeissiLetter They are targeting the U.S. bond market to keep rates higher than they should and disrupt Trump policies.
@KobeissiLetter The US dollar has been in a slow motion crash since 1913. It is inevitable.
@KobeissiLetter The rapid price climb liquidated over $100 million in short positions in a single hour (and $200 million+ in 24 hours), triggering a feedback loop of forced buying amid high futures open interest ($32.6 billion record) and trading volumes spiking to $50-78 billion daily.
@KobeissiLetter Stocks, gold, and Bitcoin exploding together isn’t strength … it’s currency debasement disguised as prosperity. When every asset rallies while the dollar collapses, you’re not getting richer, your money is evaporating. This isn’t a bull market. It’s a fiat endgame. #Macro
@KobeissiLetter Steve Miran’s playbook: weaken the dollar through tariffs. Less trade = cheaper dollar = economic reset?
@KobeissiLetter You only see how weak the Dollar really is when you check how differently the S&P performed in gold terms
@KobeissiLetter It is very easy actually. Folks are losing faith in fiat currencies. How to blame them? Currencies don’t float, they just sink at different rates. The Dow priced in gold is lower that in 1930!

















