Obviously in an ideal world all victims would report all crimes and all police departments would record their reports diligently, but the incentives are really bad — most crimes aren’t really investigated and the middle management always prefers to make the numbers look better.

@mattyglesias Yet you turn around and point to these stats as evidence that DC is a "safe" city.

@LDRNationalist Not really. I keep saying DC is an unusually violent city — it is true that the murder rate (which is measured reliably) has been declining for the past few years which is great, but it’s from a very high level.

@mattyglesias Homicides are often classified as suicides...?

@mattyglesias Russia has successfully extracted 'Bodily damage leading to death' to reduce the murder stats.

@mattyglesias It’s also why the leftist trope that “crime is down” is a malevolent, bad faith lie

@mattyglesias The murder of that 6 year old, the one where he was released after 10 years, was classified as assault for crime statistics. He was formally acquitted of murder by reason of insanity.

@mattyglesias So anything that falls below the insurance deductible is just a not so voluntary “giveaway” to the criminal element?! When always spinning and afraid of sunshine, you invent new word realms

@mattyglesias We're all looking for the guy who aggressively pushed agendas that would lead to this sort of deception Have you seen him?

@mattyglesias People murdered with fentanyl are not included in the homicide statistics. It is fungible indeed.

@mattyglesias Good point- same goes for deaths from covid versus total deaths.

@mattyglesias Profound insights. Only Harvard can provide this.

@mattyglesias Hmmm. Public officials manipulating data to make them look more competent or make a particular policy look more effective? Can’t imagine when they don’t cheat the numbers.

@mattyglesias You can reclassify homicides as cause of death unknown in some cases.

@mattyglesias They can massage the numbers, even when it comes to homicides. For example, going to the suspicious death route is quite common.

@mattyglesias It doesn't count as murder if the bodies aren't found. Allegedly, they're being ground up in cement in Chicago. (There's some DNA evidence for it, but could just be a guy who cut himself while making cement.)

@mattyglesias I agree. I believe the homicide stats. I don't think the other ones are accurate in big cities, particularly since 2020.

@mattyglesias Even these measures have flaws: the murder rate is affected by improvements in healthcare that allow more potential murder victims to survive, and auto thefts are affected by the advent of various anti-theft technologies.

@mattyglesias Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if some homicides get reported as suicides or OD. That seems to be the go to for some police departments, especially when dealing with homeless or other undesirables

@mattyglesias In DC, they were accused of classifying homicides as accidents, and many people don't carry insurance, so even those stats are suspect.

@mattyglesias A bell weather for violent crime is homicides and robberies. Homicides you can't play with the numbers. That said, a lot of robberies tend to be "reclassified".

@mattyglesias Homicides are hard to compare over time because of how much better emergency medicine has gotten. Reasonable to assume the drop in crime is overstated if you control for everything

@mattyglesias Unless the victim knew the Clintons. Can't rely on those homicide stats.

@mattyglesias Admitting shitlibs in cities lie constantly about crime. Cool

@mattyglesias This is why everyone needs to watch The Wire.

@mattyglesias Your head is fat.

@mattyglesias They’re not the only crimes though, so counting on them solely to measure crime is also folly.

@mattyglesias Some unsolved homocides are recategorized as suicides.

@mattyglesias In New Orleans, they are labeling people intoxicated while driving with opioids as "medical emergencies" even after hit and runs.

@mattyglesias the govt so good at "defining it away" crime, backlog at LA port, etc. s tier book cooking

@mattyglesias That’s also why Trump was also always right about crime

@mattyglesias Or we could start charging the people for falsifying records and execute them.

@mattyglesias Good post

@mattyglesias I saw this here in Vegas during the financial crisis. Metro police did all they could to downgrade crimes. Command puts it down to the sergeants who tell the officers what to put down on the reports.