🧵 We’re going to have a large correction — but first, markets go much higher. Here’s a factual argument against the oversimplified, dogmatic, and frankly dangerous view pushed by “Dr Profit” & others — who are incentivized to talk markets down for engagement & bias. Let’s
1) The “RRP crisis” is fiction. Yes, Reverse Repo usage collapsed from $2.2 T → $8 B. But that’s not a liquidity drain — it’s a rotation. Cash moved into T-Bills & private repo. More collateral = more efficient liquidity, not less. This is normalization, not doom. (Fed MPR
2) RRP ↓ = Liquidity ↑. When MMFs buy T-Bills instead of parking cash at the Fed, that money re-enters the banking system. So the “buffer vanished” narrative is backward. Liquidity didn’t disappear — it shifted into productive collateral.
3) Repo market = stable. Standing Repo Facility barely used. Repo rates calm. Bank reserves ~ $3.3 T, far above stress levels. No 2019 style funding squeeze. If anything, the system is swimming in liquidity. (Reuters Aug 2025 / New York Fed data)
4) The “$7 T in MMFs can’t enter markets” myth. Rule 2a-7 forces MMFs into short-term T-Bills & repos — true. But when investors want risk, they redeem MMFs and deploy. That capital becomes dry powder for equities & crypto. Not trapped — just waiting.
5) Banks aren’t “on the brink.” Unrealized losses fell to $397 B in Q2 2025 (from $483 B in Q4 2024). - CET1 ratios solid. - BTFP expired Mar 2024 without incident. Balance-sheet risk ≠ systemic fragility. (FDIC / FAU May 2025)
6) Retail “euphoria”? Mostly in headlines. Retail inflows $155 B YTD (Vanda). But retail = 12–13 % of volume vs 35 % in 2021. Hedge funds & institutions are adding, not exiting. Retail is active — not driving the bus.
7) Bitcoin: institutional bid dominates. Spot ETFs (Fidelity, BlackRock) = the engine. Chainalysis + Reuters data: large wallet accumulation by funds, not retail. This cycle = Wall Street rotation, not a Reddit mania.
8) DXY ≠ end of the bull. Dollar Index ~ 105, flat YTD. Real yields peaking, global liquidity expanding (ex-US). Strong USD ≠ bear market for risk assets — it just means selective leadership.
9) What’s actually happening: 📊 Liquidity rotation, not withdrawal 🏦 Banks managing duration risk, not collapsing 📈 Institutional bid driving risk markets 💵 RRP decline = cash working again
10) Big picture: Yes — a large correction will come. But first, we go higher — much higher. This is a phase of distribution up the curve, not into the abyss. Beware those rooting for a crash because they’re short or desperate for clicks. Data > dogma.
@Negentropic_ agreed lets ride this wave up $QQQ gonna rip
@Negentropic_ Totally, how do you filter the noise?
Extending the cycle is the same thing as saying super cycle. And we know what happened last few times people said super cycle… That’s why the best thing you can do is be aware all The theories, but pay attention to the charts. That’s exactly my plan. 🎯
$BTC taking the lead here would be the healthiest outcome for the market. We saw a similar dynamic in late 2020 ETH only managed to close above its old ATH after BTC began its final parabolic run. The same pattern could be unfolding now... Once ETH makes a sustained move above
#Bitcoin Cycle Top & US elections 🇺🇸⌛️ Historically, the cycle top tends to happen ~1 year after the U.S. election: - 1st cycle: 55 weeks after U.S. election - 2nd cycle: 57 weeks - 3rd cycle: 52 weeks We’re already at 47 weeks since the last election... #BTC #Crypto
🚨 BITCOIN ON EXCHANGES HITS 5-YEAR RECORD LOW Almost 170,000 $BTC removed from exchanges in the last 30 days 👀 Source: GlassNode
