Equivalent odds: winning the Powerball jackpot 10 times in a row

Flipping 272 heads in a row

Picking one exact atom out of the entire observable universe

Guessing the exact order of a shuffled 52-card deck and then getting 47 heads coin flips

Carpe diem!

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@davidasinclair The assertion that you are a statistical miracle, a winner of a cosmic lottery, is a seductive piece of fiction dressed in the language of mathematics. Its logic is not merely simple; it is a cascade of foundational errors, each building upon the last to create an illusion of

@davidasinclair Ya no, Arbitrary statistics about the likely hood of outcomes, don't cary useful information, the chances of walking outside on this exact morning at 11:00am and seeing a yellow butterfly land on a red flower, are also one in a trillion trillion, billion, but it just happened to

@davidasinclair The odds get even crazier when you consider being born as “you” specifically. It’s more like winning the lottery a thousand times in a row without ever buying a ticket, and hoping someone else did on your behalf.

@davidasinclair It's pretty weird to assume all configurations are equally likely. The vast majority of them wouldn't last very long, which makes it less likely that you would witness them, assuming you exist.

@davidasinclair Pretty convincing numbers for a Creator

@davidasinclair I am so glad that you are not ignoring that life must stop at a given age. If we are lucky enough to be here, let's be grateful, while pushing for a longer time to enjoy it. Thanks for doing that.

@davidasinclair All possible universes exist. What's the probability that you, a living being, would find yourself existing in a universe that allows for the existence of life?

@davidasinclair I hear you and share your optimism about life but I must respectfully disagree with the notion that our universe is unfriendly to life. We inhabit the only universe proven to exist. Seems like that’s a 1/1 sort of probability. We need to collect a lot more data.

@davidasinclair Are those odds double-counting? Once some of those are true the odds of the others go up. No one can know them (that the first is 1/10^60, etc). Statistically you would expect life somewhere. The odds for any one area having life is small, but so are the odds of none having it.

@davidasinclair Plot twist, there is no "you" all just one giant amorphous energy, no probability if all is predetermined by the first mover

@davidasinclair So why can't I win it for the 11th time? Am I really lucky or did you just describe the anthropic principle?

@davidasinclair In my mind we live in a branch of reality that was selected by a simulation to find that rare outcome of consciousness.

@davidasinclair If the number of probabilities are infinite then my existence is a certainty. Somewhere, a chimpanzee is typing out all the works of Shakespeare.

@davidasinclair The probability framing is backwards. We exist because these conditions were met, not despite them, so the lottery metaphor doesn't actually work here.

@davidasinclair Throw some infinities in there and you were just a statistical inevitability 😉

@davidasinclair The odds are so small they’re basically zero. Yet here we are. A living statistical anomaly. Makes you realize how insane it is to waste this chance on fear or doubt

@davidasinclair Based on being that "lucky", all my lotto tickets should have hit! Alas, i wasted money like a wet kitty shredding off the water.

@davidasinclair You equate being born to winning the lottery. I equate it to being extremely unlucky and unfortunate.

@davidasinclair You’re not lucky, you’re chosen by probability itself. Existing is the rarest win you’ll ever get. Stop living like you owe fear anything.

@davidasinclair Almost as if it were designed and planned…dare I say, created.

@davidasinclair Forget 30u30, embrace 8 billion under 8 billion

@davidasinclair @TsukiIwakura My biggest takeaway here is that god is a degenerate gambler

@davidasinclair Universe: one in a trillion chance Me: still anxious on a Tuesday.

@davidasinclair All that and I still can’t find my keys

@davidasinclair What exactly is the point of this observation? The probability of each of the hundreds of things that happen in your life today happening exactly as they did is also one in a gazillion. Yet we don't marvel over this trivial fact.

@davidasinclair You just explained how everyone alive is extremely lucky to exist, then said some of those people are small and should be ignored. Wow.

@davidasinclair No existence = No suffering. Don’t want the fckn lottery. Take it back

@davidasinclair What if I’m a philosophical pessimist and instead view myself as unbelievably unspeakably unlucky

@davidasinclair The Earth/moon always blows my mind. Don’t forget single star system, that’s a big one

@davidasinclair How many galaxies are estimated to be in the observable universe? How many stars are estimated to have a solar system with planets orbiting around it? Although exponentially small, complex life elsewhere in the universe is supremely likely!