1/ Recruitment to fight in Ukraine is drying up to the rate of "a teaspoon a day," despite very generous salaries and bonuses, according to a Russian government official. Thousands of Russian Telegram users have responded to explain why they don't want to join the army. ⬇️
2/ Warblogger Alex Kartavykh has written a commentary on why Russian civilians are increasingly wary of signing military contracts, despite very lucrative salaries and bonuses. The reasons why seem to be escaping those responsible for recruitment. https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/stat...
3/ "I recently had an interesting conversation with someone who could, in principle, be considered a representative of the state. He's not to blame for any of our troubles, and in fact, he's basically just passing by, because that's his job description.
4/ "But he's a government official, a real one. So we talked. And he shared his pain. Again, not his personal pain, because that's not his job description. But at the same time, it was his pain too. Because anyone gets screwed for it these days.
5/ "And if I were to sum it up in one sentence, it would sound like this: "We're already giving out six million rubles [$73,000] for voluntary mobilisation to the SVO [Special Military Operation]. Soon we'll be giving out seven million, or even eight."
6/ "And the influx isn't particularly impressive. A teaspoon a day, drip-drip. What's wrong with them, you fucking mouthpiece for this casino? What else do you need to give them to get them to fight?"
7/ "And that's a really good question. I have a whole list of hypotheses for it, of course. But it's much better to conduct an experiment and simply ask the respectable public. So as not to guess or speculate, but to rely on real answers from real people.
8/ "So the question is: Why are YOU, despite the incredibly generous conditions (and they give you a really big one-time paycheck), still fixing a stove in civilian life? What's stopping you?
9/ "Imagine the entire government has gathered to specifically ask you why you're not in the SVO. And answer the question to the point, specifically for yourself. There are recruitment ads on every lamppost, and you're still not storming Pokrovsk. Why? What's bothering you?
10/ "What needs to be done to become a kick-ass stormtrooper? Answer in detail and specifically for yourself, as if the government actually came to you, say, through [the Russian government portal] Gosuslugi, asked for this exact request, and is waiting for an answer."
11/ This question has resulted in an overwhelming response – over 4,000 comments – which Kartavykh has summarised under seven "Key Themes and Trends." The results are very interesting: "1️⃣ Distrust of the "employer" (army/state) and contract terms"
12/ People describe en masse the experience/expectation of "enslavement": the lack of fixed terms, the risk of forced extensions "until the end of the Special Military Operation," problems with rotations and leave; the fear that a promised position will be replaced by "assaults."
13/ "This is a key barrier to engagement.
14/ "2️⃣ Unpreparedness and Conditions of Service Complaints are widespread about short and formal training, supply shortages (communications, drones, medical kits, construction materials), poor evacuation of the wounded, and the transfer of specialists to "hard-core assaults."
15/ "This is a rational (not just moral) reason for refusal.
16/ "3️⃣ Unclear Goals/Feeling of a "Half-Agreement" Commentators do not understand "what it takes" or "what victory looks like." They see the authorities' willingness to "live in the routine of war" and rely on negotiations.
17/ "The lack of a clear goal kills the meaning of monetary motivation.
18/ "4️⃣ Material Motivations ≠ Risk Motivation Even large payments are perceived as "coffin money" and/or as promises with a high risk of non-payment or depreciation. "Life is more valuable." Increasing payments alone does not solve the problem of influx.
19/ "5️⃣ Family Obligations and Home Front Security A strong motive is "who to leave at home" amid domestic insecurity and deteriorating living conditions in the rear. Until there is confidence in the protection of the family, people are not ready to "go to the prison camps."
20/ "6️⃣ Criticism of the Elite/Social Injustice The question "why aren't the children of the elite" is heard, as well as irritation with personnel signals: "those who show results are punished, while those who fail are promoted."
21/ "This undermines the sense of fairness and the willingness to sign a contract.
22/ "7️⃣ Support/Readiness to Go (Loyalist Segment) An active cluster is noticeable, reproducing mobilisation rhetoric ("duty," "must"). However, even the "for" side sets conditions: proper preparation, supplies, clear deadlines, and a shift-based approach."
23/ I'll translate some of the individual comments and responses from other warbloggers in follow-up threads. /end Sources: 🔹 https://t.me/AlexCarrier/13335 🔹 https://t.me/AlexCarrier/13362
Part 2 is here: https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...
@ChrisO_wiki The crazy thing for me is that they're offering such huge bonuses to join, simply to avoid actually conscripting people.
@Michael_For14 Yes - it's financially unsustainable, as well as decreasingly effective.
@ChrisO_wiki Pleased to see that the appalling treatment of the Russian soldier has become widely known in Russia. Let’s hope not only enlistment numbers go down but general morale too.
@JanetET115 About that... https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...
@ChrisO_wiki In economic terms, I see adverse selection. A reasonable person understands that such huge amounts of money would not be offered unless there was something very wrong about the work. They are right to consider the payments "coffin money."
@ChrisO_wiki Kак вы можете знать, если рекрутер лжет? его губы двигаются! How can you tell whether a recruiter is lying? His lips are moving…
@ChrisO_wiki @PhillipsPOBrien 1) afraid of dying for a pointless cause.
@ChrisO_wiki @grok is the Russian ability to recruit new soldiers decreasing significantly?
@ChrisO_wiki Thx fir thus thread.
@ChrisO_wiki @GrandpaRoy2 Convince more Russians not to sign or that signing was not a good idea and donate, for example @Y_Chornomorets for sniper gear. Big fundraiser for bullets now. @frontlinekit or @wilendhornets for drones. Prefer to save lives? They all do that too, with protection
@ChrisO_wiki Share excellent news