@deanwball //We buckle by relaxing Blackwell controls and then the PRC shrugs and says "no thanks, we're very confident in our domestic chip industry." THAT is a message I'd want to be delivering to APEC, if I were advising the PRC.// But they are still very much dependent on outside

@krishnakaasyap agree and we should be doing stuff about SME in particular, as I recommend in OP. but for a lot of SME, the effect will be attenuated at best because of years of stockpiling.

@deanwball It’s all so tedious. The rare earth issue has been known for more than a decade but no real move on the US side until this year. Why?

@8teAPi because markets didn't solve the problem, and pure policy is hard expensive and brittle

@deanwball And regarding 7: it won't work. Sanctions on Russian gas are a crystal clear example on this. Another is how Chinese firms are building better chips now. You see, we can talk bottlenecks, but the game just works if strategy trumps economics, which it does not.

@antoniomaxai We should have responded to Russia-Ukraine by producing tons more gas, kill them on the supply side not demand side. So I agree directionally. But this is different

@deanwball >7. ... The ultimate route to deescalation here is tariffs and broader trade war policy moves--not AI compute. > MOFCOM exports controls taking effect after Dec 1 of rare earths to anyone anywhere in the world producing chips/equipment to make chips below 14nm

@PostPCEra I think you misinterpreted OP? What I meant is that China wants to use compute-related export controls to get the US to lower tariffs (tho I may be wrong; could be they want compute, but I doubt it. Also maybe they’re just readying the Taiwan takeover and causing a recession in

@deanwball I agree this is a big escalation by China, although I have significant questions about if MOFCOM can implement these controls as written. That said, this demands a robust US response, which I believe should mirror China's action: given China has said the use of Chinese rare

@deanwball How granular was the approval process prior to this announcement? This seems a bit more of a reminder than an actual clampdown.

@deanwball Interesting analysis Dean - though I wish you'd been more explicit about what China wants from these 'broader negotiations.' Are we talking EVs, solar panels, financial market access? Your point about not trading chip export relaxation for rare earth access makes sense

@deanwball Could this lead the US presidential administration to realize why global AI safety governance is needed?

@deanwball “I would retaliate strongly”, retaliate you say? Nah, you got it backwards, Mr. Ball. The Americans started this with them working in cahoots with their sidekicks to ban Huawei, Chinese EV’s and a slew of export controls over chips and chip-making equipment, it was China that

@deanwball DPA - re-open the rare earth mines in the US and nudge Canada and Australia to do the same. And yeah, we need to more aggressively ban exports of lithography machines and their consumables.

@deanwball Escalation or counter-move to US ban on high-end chips? Building leverage for Trump-Xi talks, demonstrating their escalation dominance capacity.

@deanwball China has its own semiconductor equipment champions, they're ahead on that vs you guys on rare earths, magnets, and batteries. You will reindustrialize faster from a war you started.

@deanwball i attended a security conference in Asia in 2009 and one of the topics was securing American rare earths supplies. Nothing has been done, nothing will be done, the US does not engage in economic planning.

@deanwball Why is the proposed solution more export controls and competitive behaviour? Why not push Washington to work and collaborate with Beijing?

@deanwball Easiest solution, and sadly one we'll never use, is to ban food exports to China. They can eat their chips.

@deanwball China using the nuclear option on trade can only backfire on China. Everyone in the world will max effort eliminate Chinese dependencies now. China used up all its leverage for what? Nothing but escalation it stands more to lose by.

@deanwball It's pretty clear there's no winning against China in this sort of material war. What China tries to do is to remind the policy people of the west. "Just don't fuck us over and we are good. Is that clear?" But apparently this message is still lost.

@deanwball Imagine if China ever gets to control Taiwan's tech capabilities. They will use those capabilities not only to strengthen its military, but will definitely weaponize the rare earths & semiconductors to pressure and extort the world. This should never be allowed to happen.

@deanwball Regarding 8: This sure may push states to diversify REE supply chains but the real bottleneck is processing, not extraction. Even if capacity builds in 2–3 years, China's pricing power could sink long-term profitability. For others, it's a Catch-22—not for China.

@deanwball @DeepShort7 The entire rare earths industry is not very big FYI. Nation’s can and will certainly diversify away from China

@deanwball Seems they learned from the best?

@deanwball With rare exception, ideas are really travial compared to execution. The idea of refining minerals is good, but refining minerals is staggeringly difficult.

@deanwball This is the best thing china could do, they couldnt do it at a better time, if this doesnt encourage europe and the US to develop their own mines idk what will

@deanwball "We buckle by relaxing Blackwell controls and then the PRC shrugs and says "no thanks, we're very confident in our domestic chip industry." That is what Trump Admin needs to be ready. Trump needs to come out swinging & flex US in getting this 'rare earth' stuff once & for all.

@deanwball That’s a long way to write the word: COPE

@deanwball this was inevitable and the fact that it got to this point is extreme policy malfeasance. It's disgusting. Now we have to scramble last minute