2) Call overwriting has dampened IV + stacked BTC for most of the summer. Dvol hit a low of 33%. As institutions become more involved and grow AUM, the size of the OTM Call selling increases. One particular fund is now very active. A week ago it was short Oct31 116,118,120k Calls

3) Uptober initially lived up to its name with BTC surging from 110k to 124k. The fund rolled up its 116+118k shorts to the 124k Calls, but doubled its notional. Then a spike to 126k, and further rolls from the 120k+122k shorts to 126k+128k.

4) Put Skew remained +ve not because of continued Put buying on the same rally, implying nervousness of a break lower, but ITM Calls being bought, which lifts downside Skew.

5) In fact, while the short Call fund (s) were rolling up Calls, they were still long Spot and bullish. Looking again at (3) chart, there was strong confirmation of further upside and pushing ATHs with a fresh purchase of $11m premium of Sep 125k-140k Call spreads.

6) One fund became so bullish and frustrated on having to pay premium to roll its Calls from the Oct 122k to the Oct 126k+128k Strikes, that it sold the 120k Puts to fund it as BTC traded 124k, only to have to buy the 120k Puts back in a 120-110k Put spread as BTC dipped to 121k.

7) Deribit announced a change to its vega limits to come into effect on the 13th October. And it was noticeable that on Black Friday there was some risk management that kept IV firm on a day (being Friday) that normally sees sellers of options ahead of a long US weekend.

8) Trades that stood out during normal trading (APAC-US am) hours were: Buy 2.5k ($4.5m cost) of Oct31 115k Puts Buy 675 ($3.8m cost) of Nov 122k-100k Put spread. Buy 1.5k ($2m cost) of Oct Puts +spreads. Buy 1k ($1m cost) of Oct short dated 125k+ Calls. Fund rolled -128k +122k.

9) In US hours, 4hours before Trump's 100% tariff tweet, there were no outsized trades. Despite the risk management by some entities buying options, the large overwriting Fund had supplied sufficient Calls to MMs that they were sitting (as a whole) on large long Gamma positions.

10) On the Trump tweet, the bottom fell out of the market. Post-mortems are numerous. But while BTC + ETH fell sharply, ALT moves were unprecedented. Deribit MMs for a short period were hit by the headlights, but IV was not like the days of old. Only 1-7day briefly topped 100%.

11) Trades during these times are a bundle of forced trades and fresh trades. Flows that stood out in the 2hours after the Trump tweet were buyers of upside Calls. Nov 135k Calls $2.5m spent. Dec 130-150k Calls $4m spent. Forced shorts and profit-taking in short-term options.

12) The Fund has continued to roll down its Calls to get more premium and continues to operate as normal. MMs were (as a whole) long Gamma. Deribit's risk changes just ahead of Black Friday ruin any chance to create conspiracies about downside hedging just prior. IV is normal.