@PeterLBrandt

@chartreadingpro I would agree. We peak within next year, then trade down through 2032 -- makes sense

@PeterLBrandt Indices versus gold

@Peter_Knight_VI Start on a different date -- like maybe at 1980 or 2011 peaks?

@PeterLBrandt Any advice what to do with a 6 figure 401k at that point?

@STEVE56678809 Gold

@PeterLBrandt Totally possible in real terms. But in nominal terms this feels difficult to imagine in an accelerated nominator debasement environment like we live in today.

@PeterLBrandt In '29, Fed failed to intervene-liquidated excesses, '65 to '83-Inflation '73 & '79 OPEC, CPI avg 7%, peaked @ 13.5% '80, Bretton Woods collapse, declining Corp earnings, '99 to '13-Dotcom, '08 Crisis, '25 profits, strong balance sheets, trillions of infrastructure investment.

@PeterLBrandt Your secular cycle counts are pretty gay https://x.com/ChifoiCristian/s...

@PeterLBrandt We wrote this earlier this year. At current valuations the expected forward 10 year return is zero. https://phinancetechnologies.c...

@PeterLBrandt 1929 should genuinely be community noted. When accounting for deflation, dividends, and when using a broad market index rather the the Dow all losses were recovered within 4.5 years, and that’s if you invested at the absolute highest price point

@PeterLBrandt @grok in those chop periods depicted above, what was the performance of gold and silver? Thanks Peter (also just ordered ur book)

@PeterLBrandt the same will happen with real estate.. and it's already started. I expect at least a decade of stagnant to no appreciation

@PeterLBrandt Shall we acknowledge the significant influx of money in 2020, the subsequent bursting of ‘the bubble’ from early 2021 to late 2022, and the ongoing bull market since?

@PeterLBrandt Where are the gains in equities measured in gold?

@PeterLBrandt Thanks for the chart. Would high inflation float the stock market because of rising prices? Argentina for example.

@PeterLBrandt This is what post dot com bubble felt like to me... I didn't start investing until 2005 or so, and the market has been flat for a few years. Then 08 crash happened and I struggled to believe we'd see a real recovery for many more years (and got sidelined because of it)

@PeterLBrandt Sadly, this is the most likely scenario, given also the extremely high Schiller PE ratio 😕

@PeterLBrandt @grok in 1929, if you were fully invested in the us stock marked, how much gains would you have made you each year in 1933 if you dca'ed into the index, reinvested the dividends and include the buy backs etc. Say you had 100k $ and DCA'ed 1k i to the marked each month.

@PeterLBrandt It would be strange if the structural and exponential change that AI will bring about didn't generate another secular bull market that ends in a bubble. That would still take many years of growth. And we would probably just be getting started.

@PeterLBrandt What happens to real assets in these times? Housing, Metals, Soft Commodities?

@PeterLBrandt Even if the printing / debasement goes on? Or do you mean real returns will be non existent taking into consideration the loss of value of denominator?

@PeterLBrandt There are good arguments this secular top is still much higher and a few years away. 2025=1996 or 1998, not 1999

@PeterLBrandt Te major difference is demographics. Now everybody knows that cash is trash. Thus, not applicable. All bear markets, and associated recoveries.will be dramatically faster.

@PeterLBrandt Remind me your last right call please -

@PeterLBrandt Depends on your perspective.... In the great depression stage... From the bottom until the ath again there was great gains... It wasn't just chop and side ways

@PeterLBrandt You’ll be wrong this time. Markets are now an alpha returns / casino for the wealthy and their capital flows… no longer ‘traditional investment asset’ driven by macro. So any future bear markets (which will come) are going to be short lived - New paradigm.

@PeterLBrandt Each “no gain” era isn’t absence — it’s compression. Markets breathe in decades: expansion, contraction, equilibrium. What feels like stagnation is value condensing, fundamentals catching up to imagination. The next restructuring won’t just reset prices — it’ll rewrite what we

@PeterLBrandt Hey Peter, is there anything you are seeing in charts or the market in general that would make you think the market could be peaking? Thanks! I know I've seen some comparisons of the current AI hype to the .com bubble

@PeterLBrandt Whats getting restructured??

@PeterLBrandt The easy access to stocks versus the access to stocks decades ago are different as well.

@PeterLBrandt But we need to keep in mind that because of social media and news + much easier way to participate in stockmarkets for all people it can also change dramatically from now on. Could be that this "cycle" will be much shorter from now on. Probably only a few years 🤷🏼

@PeterLBrandt Si in your long term portfolio do you change anything based on your thesis?

@PeterLBrandt Yep, and I would argue that RTY will outperform the larger stocks heavily. Whenever everyone think it's safe to just buy the 7 biggest stocks, it probably isn't.

@PeterLBrandt When that happens would it be smart to dca into good dividend etf’s during that time?

@PeterLBrandt Is this true even when inflation runs uncontrolled?