@abcampbell Missing in analysis: 1)Russian oil priced in CNY 2) India potentially moving closer to China... 3) The global manufacturer should be able to build 300 million military drones if they wanted to ... Other than that it was well written and gives us something to think on. Thanks

@Craig_Harewood All good points! Iron ore in cny too

@abcampbell underrating the possibility that India align with China, changes the whole thing.

@_Billdozer_ India goes blue team in the end.

@abcampbell Great read Unc.

@0xmandalorian 🫡

@abcampbell The physics beats politics thesis is clean. But China isn’t playing by thermodynamic rules. They’re playing by narrative control, capital repression, and coercive equilibrium. Extend-and-pretend isn’t failure, it’s regime design. 1/3

@abcampbell Very interesting read, because I have the complete opposite oppinion. Isn't the US dependant on a bit more than just Toy imports from China? Electronic Equipment and machinery imports in the billions. Also China is trying some kind of a Gold based currency system for BRICS+, they

@abcampbell Nice article. Thanks for sharing. How do you think about the kinetic scenario? Countries often lash out when boxed in (Japan in WW1, Germany WW2). Taiwan is a trap and China knows that, so I think an invasion is unlikely - it'd likely be something else, imo.

@abcampbell so a 5-7 yr window w limited defense production + high consumer inflation? and on the other side, you'll have the world's largest manufacturing base sitting idly? you're underestimating how economic wars can lead to real ones. war is stimulatory, eg Russia's gdp climbing now

@abcampbell I'm reading this now and what is your source for this chart? The numbers in your chart below seem to be coming from thin air. Mind providing a source ?

@abcampbell You raise some excellent points but I think you underestimate some of the ways in which the US is coupled to China. For example, a decoupling requires austerity on our part. While they may experience more pain in the process, we're more likely to capitulate politically as

@abcampbell One question... in case of Taiwan crisis where semi manufacturing is destroyed, I would expect China to be in a better place for some time. (Having non-optimal semi manufacturing vs our very optimal semi manufacturing completely destroyed in Taiwan).

@abcampbell Dude China already won 🙄 Wypipos can’t do mafs https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/...

@abcampbell How is this any different from Zeihan China collapse capeshit, thoughts? @favelaoverlord

@abcampbell Excellent analysis. Would be interested to understand the likely reaction functions of Russia, ME states, and Europe. Everyone has cards to play.

@abcampbell Loved the article. Only thoughts: it’s seems you’ve underestimated a bit the immediate impact on USA of full restriction on Chinese-refined critical minerals pre-2030. None of our mega cap tech and AI giants work without them which would crash our stock market and hence high end

@abcampbell Most of these seem dated. I feel like almost all of these I have seen a headline in the last couple weeks about how much progress China is making in eliminating risk of these

@abcampbell Powerful piece-you can also include pharmaceuticals in the list of US vulnerabilities (China supplies many of the starting materials) but the US government is also aware of this.

@abcampbell This is a really well-written, clear piece. Well done. Generally agree with most of it. A few things I'd be curious to hear your views on: - China's true gold holdings (higher than people appreciate)? - China's productive capacity (paired with automation, this is formidable

@abcampbell Thanks! I was thinking through a lot of this yesterday (wrote a more detailed piece on it). But agree, very very early on Some of the asymmetric opportunities. https://x.com/MikeMacroM/statu...

@abcampbell visualizing the land sales revenue gap in recent years:

@abcampbell Housing prices falling = world ending is the boomerest of all takes no? Pure boomer

@abcampbell This article is biased as fuck. Dollar system is already collapsing as you know. Look at gold, clown

@abcampbell Content is good but the chatgpt-speak gave me a headache. Pls pls pls avoid using such tools in the future, it cheapens the work.

@abcampbell Dumbest fucking article ever. So much bias and cope about US ballooning balance sheet

@abcampbell The part i dont understand is why is china going forward with decoupling if they stand to lose? Seems irrational. What are these commies thinking?

@abcampbell dumbest article ever. Keep living in the past, kkonas

@abcampbell Thx for sharing. I've found value in it. And some big areas that could be explored/developed/improved. i.e. 1) Robotics+AI impact in productivity+hanlaborRequirements 2) How industrial Supply Chains work. Rigidity, Depth and top-to-bottom & bottom-to-top capilarity.

@abcampbell > wants to short china > makes mega bearish posts I wonder why