2/ Non-conforming sexual identity (queer, questioning, etc) is also in sharp decline. Gay and lesbian are stable while heterosexuality has rebounded by around 10 points since 2023.

3/ Not only this, but freshmen in 2024-25 were less trans and queer than seniors whereas it was the reverse when BTQ+ identity was surging in 2022-23. This suggests that gender/sexual non-conformity will continue to fall.

4/ What explains the sudden reversal of trans and queer? It’s not because the kids became less woke, more religious or more conservative. Those beliefs remained stable throughout the 2020s.

5/ Is it improved mental health? Yes, in part. Less anxious and, especially, depressed, students is linked with a smaller share identifying as trans, queer or bisexual.

6/ But not entirely. Mental illness fell after the pandemic but the sexuality and gender shifts happened at least a year later. All groups, including LGBT, got less mentally ill after the pandemic.

7/ The decline in anxiety and depression occurred within trans, bisexual and queer groups as much as among others. So it wasn’t the case that most of those who solved their emotional problems became heterosexual.

8/ The fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend. It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role.

9/ For more, see my latest @unherd https://unherd.com/newsroom/wh...

10/ Read more from my new @heterodoxcentre @UniofBuckingham report based on @FIRE and other data https://www.heterodoxcentre.co... /End

@epkaufm @fire Seems to me that the graph shows a decline in nonbinary identities, not trans ones, since trans people tend to just identify as the opposite sex. Am I missing something?

@G_S_Bhogal @fire Technically yes - I suppose it depends how you think trans people would answer the gender question.

@epkaufm @fire Correlation does not equal causation. Given current US politics people are less likely to be public about their identities.

@epkaufm @fire this was their emo

@epkaufm @fire Keep in mind that most parents who willingly did this or allowed this to happen to their children won't be able to face what they've done. https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/...

@epkaufm @fire We knew it was a social issue when every washed up Hollywood actress started showing off their three trans kids.

@epkaufm @fire https://x.com/cmonjussthetip/s...

@epkaufm @fire Looks like they're going to have to update that tired old "left-handedness" time series...

@epkaufm @fire I'd love for it to simply be chosen against raionally, but the greatest hope for this may be that arc of social contagion - that what is trendy now among kids becomes repugnant and uncool quickly. Something as tiresome as this shouldn't be able to have much staying power.

@epkaufm @fire The younger kids are cringing looking at the now twenty something rainbow bullies and steering clear?

@epkaufm @fire @grok where is this information from? This is good if true!

@epkaufm @fire It's almost like it was a social contagion to begin with... @AbigailShrier @elizamondegreen

@epkaufm @fire Doctors, psychiatrists and pharmaceutical companies and teachers who groom must be held responsible for butchering our kids

@epkaufm @fire Stop encouraging the kids and we return right back to baseline

@epkaufm @fire Likely tied to Gaza war. Youth, feeling lost, adopted superficial causes. War atrocities united them under the cause of peace. @aisthistrue

@epkaufm @fire @threadreaderapp Unroll

@epkaufm @fire Good - this insanity is finally ending,

@epkaufm @fire A rightwing upsurge in transphobia and homophobia coincides with a decline in self-reported LGBT people. Surprising?

@epkaufm @fire Woke was a phase that got really popular for a few years, and now it’s dying. And like the hippies, the few who remain in that phase permanently will be bitter and destructive for the rest of their lives.

@epkaufm @fire we are winning. thank god.

@epkaufm @fire prolly cuz we get disowned or assaulted or arrested or killed when we're open about it

@epkaufm @fire Theyre catching onto the bullshit.

@epkaufm @fire Extremists, all of them. Need to up these numbers and establish a moderate base.

@epkaufm @fire The lemmings are shifting to a new fad, I suppose

@epkaufm @fire Follows the political cycle.

@epkaufm @fire Hopefully the amount of zoomer women claiming they are bisexual will start falling too