2/ QT may be nearing its end Powell said the Fed could soon slow or stop shrinking its balance sheet because liquidity in the banking system is starting to thin out. In practice, this means the Fed wants to avoid draining too much cash from banks and money markets. So

3/ A slowing job market Powell described hiring as weak and layoffs as limited, a job market that’s losing momentum but hasn’t cracked. The main risk now is job losses. That’s an important shift, the Fed is watching labor softness as long as inflation doesn't spike.

4/ Data blackout and private signals With the government shutdown halting key reports like CPI, PCE, and payrolls, the Fed will need to rely on private data and business surveys to fill the gap. That’s when real-time sources, like Truflation’s daily inflation readings, become

5/ Policy stays data-driven Powell made clear the Fed isn’t locked into a preset path. Decisions will depend on how inflation, jobs, and liquidity evolve, not on a timeline. Markets see this as cautiously dovish: balance-sheet tightening could end soon, and rate cuts remain

6/ At Truflation, we'll keep you up to date: ✦ Free members access to real-time headline inflation. ✦ Premium subscribers unlock full category & subcategory detail, powered by millions of prices, including which areas are driving inflation shifts. 🔐 https://truflation.com