New newsletter: WHY AI IS NOT A BUBBLE Everybody is calling AI a bubble now, even the folks building it. I hate when conventional wisdoms get too conventional. So I read and listened to the smartest cases for why AI is NOT a bubble. My summary —> https://www.derekthompson.org/...
To be clear, I think the case for AI being a bubble is pretty strong. But I think these are 2 of the strongest counter-arguments: 1. The companies building AI could not be anything less like the companies that defined the dot-com bubble. http://Pets.com was a joke. It
The energy point is particularly interesting https://x.com/tyler__palmer/st...
@DKThomp Everyone calling it a bubble while using AI daily is peak irony
@RyoXyfs literally my lede :)
@DKThomp It's a bubble because if every human being on the planet, including new born babies, paid 20/month it wouldn't make it profitable.
@DKThomp I think the big difference is that unlike railroads or broadband, agi right around the corner can never be disproven. Tesla has maintained high valuations for a decade based on autonomous taxis that never arrive but are almost here. The downside of disappointment can’t happen.
@DKThomp This take reads a lot like "Everyone at the top has FOMO and if they sell it will either cause them to miss out or a run so lets hope the company's keep 'round tripping' their clever stock swap deals without regulatory interference forever"
@DKThomp Oh so it is DEFINITELY a bubble
@DKThomp You are correct. Its the Hindenburg.
@DKThomp Todays' bubble involves a few companies (OpenAI is at center) while the 1929 bubble was for entire economy and dotcom bubble was for most valuable companies in the Nasdaq. AI software revenues (output $30bn this year?) do not justify investment inputs ($1 trn this year?)
@DKThomp This spicy take is gonna age like milk
@DKThomp Here's one dynamic that will be interesting to watch: OpenAI has no skin in the game. If they get their gigawatts and conduct their little experiment and a digital God is not birthed, they'll just shrug it off. The question then will be how long do the Data Centers hang on?
@DKThomp Everybody calling AI a bubble is in one (or more) of these categories: 1 - They hate AI and want it to be true. 2 - They hear everybody else saying it so it must be true. 3 - Their information sources are poor. (Hint - listen to what the employees are saying and look at capex
@DKThomp creators are already building with it, exactly
@DKThomp The AI revolution won’t save us either. The firetruck we keep chasing — and the future we keep overlooking. My newest article, already liked by my dad! ❤️ https://open.substack.com/pub/...
@DKThomp It is going to be fascinating as time goes on to see if AI is a bubble or not. With so much getting spent, it just seems hard to conceive of how this can work. And there is also the potential cash flow crisis. So much investment. Reminds me of Credit Default Swaps!
@DKThomp It's a giant waste of human resources. We have coral bleaching in the oceans of the world, flooding, record temperatures and the AI brains are invested in this idiotic religious quest to replace humans. What use is a destroyed planet even if AI conquers all?
@DKThomp You need to go do hard manual labor for 2 yrs straight before I ever listen to a word of advice you have to give. Pencil neck pussy in a slim fit suit. Shut the fuck up
@DKThomp I appreciate you trying to air the other side, but your guest was not very convincing. In addition it's become clear that along with chips, shells, and land, data centers are going to need to build their own power plants. There's no world in which revenue will be enough.