Would be the sparsest plenum in recent memory Main cause is spate of disappearances and disciplinary campaigns in the People's Liberation Army Closest comparison I can find is the 2017 Seventh Plenum at the end of Xi's first-term crackdown (191 members and 145 alternates) 2/

This year could be big drop from the 199/205 members and 165/171 alternates at the Third Plenum last July Illness and travel explain some absences; but political trouble explains more Some "missing" cadres may resurface, but maximum attendance will be 193/205 and 165/171 3/

Do all these absences mean Xi is in political trouble? No. Purges show Xi’s political strength, not weakness. Removing high-ranking cadres and generals shows Xi can impose his will on the Party and the PLA Contrast with Hu Jintao & Jiang Zemin is stark: no generals out 4/

Much is made of the fact many targets rose under Xi—perhaps it shows pushback from other factions? But after 13 years as leader, everyone has been promoted by Xi these days And none of the fallen belonged to his true inner circle—Li Qiang, Cai Qi, He Lifeng, etc. 5/

What "Xi doomers" miss is that he wants purges, if they reinforce his power and make the Party stronger His top priority is advancing the Party’s "self-revolution" into a clean, disciplined, and effective organization that is capable of ruling China indefinitely 6/

Self-revolution is Xi's "second answer" for the Party to escape the "historical cycle" of dynastic rise and fall This stands alongside Mao Zedong’s "first answer" of "democracy"—a rare instance of Xi comparing himself directly with the Chairman 7/

Xi's deepest fear is a Soviet-style collapse of the Party and its nation-building project, which define both his life and career Taking power, he faced corruption, decay, and moral crisis Fighting graft has sidelined rivals but also advanced Xi's own "China dream" 8/

Despite the "purge surge," chances of major reshuffles at the Fourth Plenum are uncertain CC members are not expelled until after internal investigations, which can take years More expulsions are likely but most high-level promotions follow Politburo meetings not plenums 9/

Xi is still very much in charge and can remain paramount leader for the next 10-15 years This analysis is from an @AsiaPolicy preview of the Fourth Plenum It will set the agenda for China's 15th Five-Year Plan and embed Xi's vision for techno-industrial dominance 10/10

@neilthomas123 I consider it good news. Let his generals worry about immediate political survival rather than success in the war

@neilthomas123 The Plenum is Xi’s victory parade

@neilthomas123 If this were the American system, they would all have lucrative sinecures as a reward for their lifetime of corruption. It's why China is rising and America is circling the drain.

@neilthomas123 Nothing like what happens when a government changes, and people retire, fail to do their job or lose their position in a factional reshuffle. And it's the CPC. Can't you people even do that correctly?

@neilthomas123 If you don't respect your opponents by calling them correctly, history will not respect you. Anyone who writes "CCP" instead of "CPC" loses credibility.

@neilthomas123 @threadreaderapp unroll

@neilthomas123 @threadreaderapp please unroll

@neilthomas123 @threadreaderapp pls unroll

@neilthomas123 @threadreaderapp unroll

@neilthomas123 accountability

@neilthomas123 opinion: Xi is gay

@neilthomas123

@neilthomas123 Purges are common, you may as well ask who has Trump purged from the Biden administration.

@neilthomas123 He purged Donald trump.