As always, remember to bookmark this one 👆 I hope you all had a great international break, and this one will help you to warm you back up for action Also, who else thinks that 3 international breaks in just eleven Gameweeks are an absolute momentum breaker? Anyway:

🔶 Enzo Fernández Over the past few days on FPL X, you might get the impression that we’re still in the 2020/2021 season That’s how often someone discusses Dominic Calvert-Lewin Luckily, we’re in the here and now It’s Gameweek 8 and the 4th highest-scoring midfielder is...

... Enzo Fernandéz Who is only four points behind number two, Antoine Semenyo 🤯 One reason it happened is that his role changed — Cole Palmer’s injury led Maresca to play Enzo in a number ten role Call me old-fashioned, but I really like my midfielders playing...

... close to the opponent’s goal So, at first glance, it seems like an ideal spot to attack the upside: • New advanced role • £6.7m price tag • Chelsea are ranked 6th in xG despite those red cards • They will play Forest, Sunderland, Wolves and Burnley in the next five GWs

• He has already shown he can get into good goal-scoring opportunities • He’s just 14.8% owned Obviously, there are things beyond our control that can happen Like Palmer returning sooner than we expected Or something like Marc Guiu starting, Pedro playing #10, and Enzo #8

Or if he’s actually injured... If he’s not, you can’t always be a 😼 Anyway, in the last two games, Enzo racked up: • 6 shots • 4 them inside the box • 3 within the 6-yard box He scored 1 goal and hit the post It’s hard to argue against a good old upside-chasing like this

There’s just one last thing to do: Enzo is taking penalties, but WHAT IF he actually doesn’t produce enough final product to make this transfer worthwhile? Do we have a larger sample size of him playing advanced? Reader, we sure have

It’s not super massive, but it’s about 950 minutes in Chelsea as #10: • 2.35 shots per90 • 0.35 non-penalty xG per90 • 0.09 xA per90 So, yeah, while it’s not several thousand minutes, it shows he's dangerous Fingers crossed he stays there for a while He should do well

🔶 Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paquetá Not all trends are the same There is a rising interest in West Ham’s assets: mainly Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paquetá On a global scale, it’s not a major surge — Bowen is in the 7.5% of teams, while the Brazilian is around 2.9%

In my last week’s preview, I discussed how West Ham under Nuno Espírito Santo will most likely look like It was based on Hamers’s defensive problems prior to his arrival and data from his spell at Forest In a nutshell, for quite some time, he will try to find some defensive...

... solidity before starting to fully implement ideas in the final third And even then, it will be classic low block, low possession, low pressing intensity, few passes, and a lot of counters A lot of crosses, too After all, it was one of the reasons he was sacked at Forest

The management tried to find someone who could improve the attack They played relegation-quality football for quite some time And with Bowen, you’re betting on the fact he will improve them from their current *checks notes* 19th place in the xG table Bowen is a player who...

... would thrive in a good team But so far this season, he has been posting only average results in advanced data metrics measuring his threat And although he still shoots a lot, he only takes a few attempts centrally — the 0.11 non-penalty xG per 90 If you’re not a fan..

... of xG numbers, I’ll translate: • 7 shots from a wide angle • 4 shots outside the box • 2 on the edge of the box • And just 2 attempts close to the goal (both headers) The fixtures weren’t even that poor But surely, they are much better now, right? Well, Brentford...

... at home this week is a great one, that’s for sure Leeds away is annoying, same as Newcastle (H), who are amazing defensively (though I can take the argument that Hall/Livramento are missing) Burnley, sure Then it’s Bournemouth, Liverpool, United, and Brighton until GW15

Bowen is a £7.7m FWD, and: a) could play as a number 9, which isn’t his best position — he performs better on the wing b) could play on the wing, which is better, but... he’s an FPL forward, ehm I just don’t know if those two games are enough, given the current circumstances

If you’re on Wildcard (or loaded with FTs), you think West Ham will batter them, and then you switch to someone else after 4 GWs, then okay I’m not fully convinced Paquetá has decent DEFCON potential and penalties, but the issue is that they need to win some penalties first

In terms of the final product, there is *some* assist potential (league’s average over the past three seasons) And minimal open-play goal threat — he mostly scores screamers or penalties

🔶 Antoine Semenyo: One of the biggest overperformers He’s the second-highest scoring midfielder in the game He’s also one of the biggest overperformers Should we be worried? I couldn’t be less fussed It’s true that he has more assists than he should have but...

... that’s alright — it will slow down, but he will rack up some more moving forward The important thing is that there isn’t some huge overperformance in terms of goal threat Scoring 6 goals from 4 xG isn’t a reason to drop someone who’s that integral to his team, and with...

... those fixtures On top of that, he overperforms in a low sample size, and no one can predict how long it will continue Sure, he might enter a dry spell, but at the same time, it’s not a signal that he suddenly stops after 7 GWs As long as he gets into good chances...

... everything’s all right Additionally, it’s borderline FPL suicide to overlook him, as he crossed the 60% ownership

🔶 Timber and Calafiori Gabriel remains my #1 defensive pick from Arsenal, and you can find the reasoning in a free section of my premium deep dive on the Data Dribble newsletter (link is in the bio) It also includes some Timber vs Calafiori debate, which I find extremely funny

Based on what I see now, the Dutch player seems to combine both creative and goal threat That should make his performances more sustainable So far, Calafiori hasn’t created much — he has 2 assists, but these were rather random than repeatable His threat stems from arriving...

... in some fantastic goal-scoring positions He averages 2.41 non-penalty shots and 0.30 non-penalty xG, which WILL decrease ❗ These are the figures that great wingers produce over a large sample size Sarr, Saka, or Mitoma performed similarly last season Funny indeed

🔶 Data Dribble Each week, there’s also a FREE edition of the newsletter This time, I tried something different I discussed 5 players — most of them might not be great FPL picks, but they make a big difference on the pitch ❗ Check it here: https://www.datadribble.co/p/w...

That’s a wrap! If you enjoyed this one: 1. Follow me at @11filipnovak for more regular content 2. Consider subscribing to the Data Dribble newsletter 3. Repost the post below to share it with your audience 👇

@11filipnovak Is having an involvement in the Monday night game a good enough reason to transfer in Bowen for Watkins?

@11filipnovak Great read as always Filip! Any thoughts on Nick Woltemade for the next few GWs since Newcastle’s fixtures swing for the better?

@11filipnovak Massive thread. Tilts me away from Bowen and towards Woltemade now. But considering how good Wood was with Forest under Nuno, is there a possibility that we might see something similar with Bowen?