Here's this graph that shows *how much diversity there is in covid sequences collected worldwide*. That is: if you collect 100 samples, are they all the same, or are they all different. How much variety is there in the different components of the virus sequences collected.

The higher the graph, the more varied covid has become.

Then you get a moment like this. Covid has been growing steadily more varied... but most of the variants are about as competitive as each other, until suddenly Delta appears. It replicates quicker than the rest and starts to displace them. Delta emerges. Diversity plunges.

Then there's another growth in diversity as all the variants are about as competitive as each other until... BA.1 emerges and takes over, and... Diversity plunges.

And then again, and again, with each new emerging variant.

But do you see what else is a repeated pattern there now?

What I think of as a bulge and a spike. Delta and BA.1 XBBs and JN.1 XFG and... well, will we get a repeat of the pattern?

I had thought that XFG was going to reset the diversity again, but actually it's done the opposite. It's splitting into subvariants faster than ever before. https://x.com/1goodtern/status...

And instead of being reset to a lower diversity, we've actually reached a new record peak.

So, what's going to happen next? Well, I think a lot of variant watchers would put money on something like BA.3.2*

But Covid is full of surprises. Maybe it'll follow a pattern. Maybe it'll pull something new out of the bag.

We're going to find out the hard way, of course.

Because when (and it is when, not if) that new variant emerges that resets diversity, what always happens is a big hard wave.

Lots of illness, lots of disability, lots of long term health problems, lots of death.

When covid wins the variant lottery, we lose.

@1goodtern This is also a really good explanation for those who claim “vaccines don’t work.” (Ie they aren’t completely neutralizing.) They would have if everyone worldwide had pulled together and gotten their shots and masked carefully for 3-4 months at the start before entropy began.

@FLPublicAffairs I suspect there would have still been later mutations arising from persistent infections. But we would have had fewer to deal with.

@1goodtern @kathryn_revell I can tell I’m going to need my dictionary for this 🧵. Am just looking up ‘Easy’…

@1goodtern For those who want a definition: