Published: October 18, 2025
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I agree with Dr Gita Gopinath. The US stock market is in a clear and massive bubble. The degree of leverage in the system means that we cannot rule out a systemic event like the global financial crisis of 2008-9. Gold is also flashing a big warning signal. I don't think of

@svembu Sir, with due respect … you cry wolf every year ..

Image in tweet by Sridhar Vembu

@SelukarAbhijit All that an engineer can do is to point out that the building is structurally unsound. No one can predict when it will collapse.

@svembu Sir, I am eager to use Arattai but what about end to end encryption

@thedharmik2003 Please give us a week.

@svembu I’m with @svembu and Dr. @GitaGopinath. If we want fewer bubbles, we need to stop mixing up two things: building real value today vs. selling a story about tomorrow. From the operator side, I keep it simple. Do customers use it every week? Do they pay for it without

@svembu The concentration of global capital in US equities has created unprecedented vulnerability. When leverage is this high and valuations are stretched this far, any correction cascades faster and harder than before. The gold rally is basically the market pricing in systemic risk

@svembu Bubble talk is loud, but stress usually shows up first in credit. Widening high yield spreads, rising repo rates, and a kink in the bill curve are the smoke alarms. Equity bubbles often keep rising until liquidity tightens and breadth cracks. Gold flashing red pairs with falling

@svembu US debt at 38000 billion Income at ~ 400 billion per month Expense at ~ 550 billion per month Monthly deficit 150 monthly Monthly interest 80 per month Monthly debt renewal around 750 billion per month ( Old debt at around 2.9% renewed in new rates around 4% leading to

@svembu The irony is that AI itself is amplifying systemic leverage > algo-driven liquidity cycles to valuation models detached from real productivity. When capital chases compute instead of fundamentals, bubbles become algorithmically reinforced. Eventually, markets will need trust

@svembu Exactly. The U.S. debt spiral and inflated equity valuations after the Fed’s massive liquidity injections have distorted fundamentals. The bubble looks bigger than ever, just waiting for a trigger. Now The U.S. has Trump’s touch, the only man to bankrupt a casino, a first in

@svembu All the reliance is being AI ..it seems AI will run the government. Is AI the new bubble or gold?

@svembu Where is tbe debt in the stock market ? The valuations are a bit stretched it's not a bubble by any means.

@svembu Pessimism always sells. Or someone who missed the bus cribs. Whatever. All the big brains of the world can’t be dumb altogether that they r guiding capex of $500 Bn- 1 Tn - Amazon,Meta, google, microsoft, oracle, open ai, xAI etc. If economics drives markets, then all economists

@svembu But nobody knows when this bubble prick will eventually occur. Buffet is sitting on 200 bd cash for more than a year, gold n silver are rising ever since and NVIDIA continues to near 5 trillion dollar cap. Correlation isn't causation.

@svembu Leaving aside the monetary valuations, are we accumulating resources debt? Resources that drive "present" at any point in time being biological life in existence & usable energy forms to maximize productivity of such biological life..are we borrowing these from the future?

@svembu Luckily India is insulated to some extent. FII have already withdrawn & yet mkt is steady.

@svembu Not with the Chinese AI models being around which are multiple times cheaper. USD as a reserve is going away. Gold is back.

@svembu Which organisations habe to fall for this level of financial crisis being talked about? Because Banks after Basel 3 are well capitalized and have higher liquidity compared to the period when GFC happened.

@svembu @GitaGopinath A twin shock — collapsing U.S. equities + weakening dollar — could erase wealth faster than any single crisis in modern history. Gold isn’t rising out of greed. It’s rising out of fear. It’s not an investment signal, it’s an insurance signal. Funny how markets

@svembu Actually, similar thing i posted related to gold that relates there maybe some Issues in financial system 👇 🪙 Gold returns YTD - 63% Gold has had these types of massive gains in a short period only a few times in history. And each time it was due to something major breaking

@svembu Absolutely. The U.S. debt explosion and the equity bubble since the Fed’s interventions have only deepened systemic risks. It’s a ticking time bomb.

@svembu Any thoughts on the Indian stock market bubble? How many institutions which are being coerced into buying stocks dumped by FIIs, will go down taking with it the hard earned savings of the people?

@svembu Ai application feeds Cloud they feeds AI infrastructure unfortunately those Application lack revenue or ROI. My name is Ai and I am the bubble. Off course, AI is solving problems but ROI is not at worth against valuation

@svembu 🚀 Artificial Intelligence isn’t just an American story—it’s transforming the global economy from India to Europe, Africa to ASEAN. 📉 While some predict a $35 trillion crash, I argue that AI is actually making the world more efficient, more resilient, and less dependent on any

@svembu Great opportunity for you and other companies willing to grow market share. When bubble bursts, economic recession means most companies will actively seek cheaper alternatives to services provided by MS, AWS, Oracle, etc.

@svembu All printed money are invested in stocks, company profits don't matter for investors. Only the Fed’s rate cuts or hikes matter now. The US economy’s a Ponzi scheme, with the Fed pulling the strings.

@svembu Where she said that US markets in bubble. She simply emphasises the equitable growth in other parts of world also.

@svembu If several people can foresee a negative event, it usually never happens. No one saw the planes coming. No one saw Covid coming. No one will see the next event coming. Even if the bubble burst, it will be very short lived considering the amount of cash institutions are sitting on

@svembu Without reading lab reports, my initial diagnosis is, the root cause cound be reduced use of collective wisdom in governance :)

@svembu Irrational exuberance 😄 Not what we should be talking about on Dhanteras.

@svembu AI is the bubble

@svembu Sir so far most of the investment is funded through cash fows generated from top 8 to 9 companies which could be roughly around 450 billion dollars. Also there are some big pocket strategic parter take equity stake like soft bank. Debt you are referring to may be usa govt debt

@svembu AI ? When everything is artificial, intelligence is about finding nature related investments.

@svembu Absolutely agree with this assessment. The US stock market is showing classic signs of a massive bubble, and the high leverage in the system makes it extremely vulnerable to a systemic shock, reminiscent of the 2008–09 financial crisis. Gold as a hedge makes perfect sense here.

@svembu US’s president seems more focused on managing optics than the underlying economic reality and every other day, Trump is busy manipulating the market to milk it even further.

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