If someone is planning on a coordinated market manipulation plan to pump some shitcoin to 100x it's fair value There's no rule that says you can't just do that, too Money don't got no owners, only spenders /2

And if a founder is exit scamming or some VC did an OTC deal for half the supply you can happily short it into the ground despite paying egregious funding /3

So for the home trading shitcoinoor the highest probabilty trades tend to be from crime Cos crime pays. It really does! /4

Its worth understanding that crime-based flows are a different thing that risk premia based edges like momentum and mean reversion (what most traders trade) Risk premia and style premia are by definition weak edges and noisy af Crime isn't like that at all, its realiable /5

So what type of crimes CAN be committed and how can you tell? The first category of bullshit that is jailable in tradfi is a technical situation where the derivative of a market (perp) is more liquid than the underlying (spot) /6

If you can accumulate a perp long big enough, it doesn't matter if you spend a ton of cash market buying the spot to drive it up, because you make it back on the perp This is the @DWFLabs playbook. They buy large amounts OTC from struggling projects, and pamp-dump it /7

@DWFLabs So the point of recognition is when the OI of the perp rises so that perp is more liquid than the spot market But you wanna notice well before that Unexplained rises in OI of coins with a thin-nonexistent spot market are early tells /8

@DWFLabs If you can, identify the MM behind the criming using @arkham it makes it way easier and you can sometimes see transfers to CEX's before the dump if they get sloppy /9

@DWFLabs @arkham Of course once a coin has pumped the perpetrators have to start dumping The primary way of identifying this after a big pump is by a disconnect between perp and spot with perp selling off hard Like UNFI last year /10

@DWFLabs @arkham Or this one in MINA (from my journal at the time) /11

@DWFLabs @arkham Which was followed by this kind of predictable dump /12

@DWFLabs @arkham Or the epic DWF scampump in CYBER it's extremely obvious when you plot spot and perps on the same chart Do this by hitting "plus" on tradingview, and adding CYBERUSDT.P /13

@DWFLabs @arkham Another type of crime is the slow motion rugpull, where insiders give up, and sell off their bags as fast as they can without creating panic When this happens funding will blow out to thousands of percent per year cost for going short So you have this paradox /14

@DWFLabs @arkham I forget the paradox, I'm a bit stoned so fuckit Moving on To tape painting crime /15

@DWFLabs @arkham If a coin is thinly traded, you could draw a dick on the chart if you want Memecoins are like this If you see someone spending money to paint the chart, you can bet there's fuckery afoot /16

@DWFLabs @arkham Because this is crypto, it generally becomes +ev to trade in the direction of crime because crime pays <sigh> The last type of crime is the create fake liquidity crime /17

@DWFLabs @arkham You can take some shitcoin, pay a bunch of bribes to exchanges to get it listed Pay market makers to keep the markets liquid And to fake volume, cos that's really significant /18

@DWFLabs @arkham Side point: Volume is *highly* autocorrelated and predictive of price changes in crypto Things that have unusually high volume tend to pump Intuitively we know this, but the maff checks out /19

@DWFLabs @arkham Anyway, when you do the work to make your shitcoin liquid and listed, all there is to do is wait until a bunch of retail traders buy it cos it was on a top volume list or some KOL shilled it or whatever And then dump eet

@DWFLabs @arkham So the bottom line is its an excellent trade to short every new CEX listing a few days after launch I mean its that dumb /21

@DWFLabs @arkham That's about all the threadooring I got in me today A bunch of this scamcoin shorting is thrown into our HyperTrend algo too btw You can't get much capital into it though /fin