For years, the Fed has been able to access the ADP microdata (aggregated, anonymized data covering around 20% of private-sector payrolls) to produce its own internal analysis of the labor market using a data source that can be timelier than official BLS data. Powell first

And Fed researchers have provided the data to either the FOMC or the public in reports at various times, with numerous references to it over the years in FOMC minutes. 2018: https://www.federalreserve.gov... 2019 FOMC briefing materials (screenshot) 2020: https://www.federalreserve.gov... 2021

In a statement, ADP said, "We are actively working with the Fed to ensure we can enhance our processes to share this meaningful information in line with our rigorous standards."

@NickTimiraos IDK why ADP is acting like an angry side chick

@NickTimiraos They should keep posting their shot in the dark monetary policy guesses because the guesses would be just as early/late/wrong as they are with all the information in the world at their fingertips!

@NickTimiraos Don’t they still have access to state level initial jobless claims? Seems like that would be the best source of any alternative job data.

@NickTimiraos Revelio Public Labor Statistics (RPLS) is a freely available macroeconomic labor market set of statistics built from 100+ million U.S. profiles to provide a clear view of workforce dynamics. It follows a format similar to the BLS, tracking employment levels, wages, and job

@NickTimiraos It’s clear what prompted the change.

@NickTimiraos They are blocking the data cus they know it is terrible

@NickTimiraos Did ADP stop providing free access because they worried about conditional retribution from the executive branch? Or do they require a clear definition of the value of their intellectual property, that is, they want to be paid. Who's lunch is free?

@NickTimiraos You know who solves this? @truflation @therealsrust

@NickTimiraos ADP is a pretty bad company. Most corporations want to stop doing business with them but they can't as they are stuck due to the difficulty of transitioning out of ADP. I wouldn't trust their data.

@NickTimiraos What happened is Waller actually leaked the upcoming ADP in a speech one day before it was released

@NickTimiraos i think we all have a reasonable surmise about what caused it. plummeting labor rolls.

@NickTimiraos I expect Trump has had those pesky glass wires pulled out of the feds offices.

@NickTimiraos I don’t know why the Federal Reserve doesn’t get the info directly from the IRS.

@NickTimiraos We must recognize that there is a time bomb lurking that could shatter optimism in both politics and the economy: hidden U.S. employment and economic data.

@NickTimiraos Legitimately , possible to cancel the FOMC since they have no access to data ?

@NickTimiraos bullshit

@NickTimiraos @NickTimiraos, excellent reporting.

@NickTimiraos Great story, and solid @ddayen hat tip.

@NickTimiraos Great.

@NickTimiraos @VolSignals @gherkinit @PharmD_KS @DannyDayan5 Ya dont say. Wonder who or what is behind this? Weird. Almost like powerful leverage, benefit of doubt, and info control is being used in unprecedented ways toward obvious goals. Likely just a typical occurrence which is waived away

@NickTimiraos Respect

@NickTimiraos Fed’s missing ADP data adds uncertainty to economic forecasts.