Published: October 25, 2025
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Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state - despite all the chaos and noise - is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it's literally what they

Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand
Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand

This is a good post that goes into more details on the paper https://x.com/simpatico771/sta...

Yes, Kit is right, that part is rather extraordinary https://x.com/KitKlarenberg/st... They have a whole section in the report (see screenshot) where they detail how key Chinese expressions have been systematically mistranslated by US and policymakers in the US (including in the Foreign

Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand
Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand Parts that jumped out to me was common mistranslations of Chinese government statements by US officialdom as far more belligerent than intended. Such woeful comprehension is not new but it's still shocking Western leaders don't actually understand what Beijing is saying often.

@KitKlarenberg You're right 👇 That part was incredible to see in a RAND report https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/st...

@RnaudBertrand The main author wrote a terrific book about the run-up to the Iraq invasion. He came on Sinica to talk about parallels in the way that US China policy was shaping up. An excellent paper. Taping with Mike and a co-author later this week.

@KaiserKuo Please ping me the link to the discussion when you have it, really keen to listen to it!

@RnaudBertrand China should NOT accept the legitimacy of the US Epstein clientocracy

@fitofpeak 🤣

@RnaudBertrand Wow...the 'grand strategists' at RAND must really be out of drugs to be able to have short moments of clarity like this.

@betc0in 😅

@RnaudBertrand "There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things." — Niccolò Machiavelli

@Rapahelz Important to remember

@RnaudBertrand From Rand’s lips to god’s ears, Arnaud. But, I’ll believe it when I see it. Though I did watch an interview on TV with arch-Neocon Bill Crystal where he vaguely intimated that this could happen.

@davidginsburg5 I think I watched the same interview! He sounded very depressed, which is always a good sign 😅

@RnaudBertrand Imagine how far ahead China must actually be for RAND to suggest it's time to extend a handshake and agree to a draw?

Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand When even RAND starts advising peaceful coexistence, you know deterrence has failed-and reality has forced a rethink. One of my undergrad American classmate was working for Rand as a fellow years ago and we had a phone call to catch up. Wasn't sure how she's doing know. Will

@RnaudBertrand Expect heavy push back. Neocons have successfully pushed back against all previous attempts at moderation.

@RnaudBertrand @broomstick33 Extraordinary. But is it a ‘Minsk agreement’ to buy time, a factional debate, or a genuine change?

@RnaudBertrand Fascinating. Great post.

@RnaudBertrand Oddly enough, around the same time, Time magazine started slamming Taiwan's independence-pushing president, William Lai, as reckless. https://x.com/kazu_fujisawa/st...

@RnaudBertrand Your thread is very popular today! #TopUnroll https://threadreaderapp.com/th... 🙏🏼@Kikkimoj for 🥇unroll

@RnaudBertrand No sovereign country can take the risk of trusting the US government ever again

@RnaudBertrand This is just a sophisticated psyop. Believe it at your own peril. Almost all military-industrial capacity being built, and the products being tested or introduced, are explicitly designed to counter China. The devil is in the details, and nothing has changed there.

@RnaudBertrand Maybe they realise it. And maybe they accept they’re weak. However, I still suspect they will resort to all kind of dirty tricks anyway, using vassals and extortion just like they do in Europe. There’s not one person in the American government who deserves any kind of trust.

@RnaudBertrand Many of us do not know about the significance of the RAND Corporation:

Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand The Chinese made their position known along time ago. It's the white supremacist hawks within the US ruling establishment, whore are still in denial, because of an outdated ideology.

Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand
Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand Never, never trust your archenemy. China should NEVER trust America. America is on stage 5 of the 7-stage process of its final collapse. The US will do everything to bring down China and other countries with it. https://youtu.be/wb39CeK_yWg

@RnaudBertrand If the warmongers at RAND finally agree that America should learn to live with China as an equal and recognize Taiwan as a part of China—discouraging it from breaking away—then that is a good thing.

@RnaudBertrand What a yank says & what a yank does are polar opposites. They say they don't want to contain 🇨🇳, but they'll continue doing everything they can 2 do so. They don't allow competition. Esp if they're losing. & They will ALWAYS use TW to try & provoke a war. It's what warmongers do

@RnaudBertrand “Extraordinary” shift? No, Jake Sullivan was writing about coexistence in 2019, this is standard centrist DC thought and has been for many years. Arnaud is uninformed on this and many other topics

Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand
Image in tweet by Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand These are things known by US military leaders for at least 20 years but not "officially" acknowledged.

@RnaudBertrand The U.S. decision to deescalate means it has quietly recognized that it is the weaker side in any confrontation. Its acceptance of the CCP’s legitimacy means it now fears for its own. China is not the Soviet Union, and this is no longer the twentieth century.

@RnaudBertrand I had a quick read. It seems China's new 6th gen fighters have persuaded the USA to love peace with China.

@RnaudBertrand @Noneotherthanwe They had another paper in 2016, saying that a victory is not possible after 2030. 5 years left, maybe this is a head fake.

@RnaudBertrand I follow more Brian Berletic perspective on it. I don't see any signs of co-existence. The military build up continues, hence the reason why they want to dump Ukraine on the EU.

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