2/ Key question: what "ingredients" for a bomb does Iran actually have post-war? Netanyahu himself acknowledges Iran’s 60% stockpile is intact — and going from 60→weapons-grade needs almost no extra enrichment effort.

3/ The big unknowns: how many centrifuges remain (or were hidden) & whether the 60% stockpile was dispersed. Those are known unknowns. This ambiguity is Tehran’s strategic edge. It can sprint to a weapon from a tiny, concealed, fortified facility with only a handful of people.

4/ As MIT Professor & former Pentagon advisor Ted Postol has explained: “You’d have to be completely deaf, dumb, or blind not to take this potential seriously.” Postol is one of America’s foremost experts on nuclear weapons & missile defense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

5/ As Postol lays out: the IAEA lost oversight of Iran’s centrifuge production in 2021. Since then Iran built ~13,000 centrifuges. If it diverted only ~1.5% of that, it would have more than one cascade of 174 centrifuges that Iran uses.

6/ A single Iranian 174 centrifuge cascade with 1000 SWU capacity can produce HEU for a bomb in ~4–5 weeks. As Postol says, Iran had to be a “saint” not to divert some centrifuges. Add to that that we don't know if June bombing even destroyed all ~13,000 declared centrifuges.

7/ How easy would it be for Iran to dash for a bomb in these circumstances? Extremely per Postol. One 174-centrifuge cascade fits in ~620 sq ft— a single room in a building or a small underground chamber.

8/ With only a few-tens of kW of power, a tiny team could enrich, convert to metal, and assemble. Rapid, covert weaponization is very feasible for Iran, per Postol.

9/ Postol: this is essentially what Pakistan did — it tested weeks after India, but they didn’t “put it together” in weeks. They had it. Iran thus adopts nuclear ambiguity & will reveal only if forced, mirroring Israel's posture & reducing risk of regional proliferation.

10/ This way Iran can “have the best of both worlds,” as Postol says — publicly deny nukes while quietly keeping them. They avoid provoking Turkey or Saudi Arabia, yet still reap deterrence & leverage because of this latent, unverifiable nuclear capability.

11/ Postol: "They’re not gonna declare. But they must be considered a weapons state. You’d be crazy if you did something to them where you thought they might respond with a nuke. You’d be crazy to act with impunity."

12/ This is essentially what Moty Kanias — a reservist colonel in IDF intelligence & former senior Israeli security official — wrote in Haaretz after the war: Iran’s ultimate victory in the war is being treated as a nuclear power without the risks of officially becoming one.

13/ The Israeli intel official, in arguing that Iran "won the war that mattered" while Israel only took out "replaceable" targets, ends by saying: "In redefining what winning looks like, Iran may have changed the rules of modern conflict itself." https://www.haaretz.com/opinio...

14/ The key takeaway: if Iran has indeed gone down this path, it’s the direct result of incredibly stupid US & Israeli policies that pushed it here: destroying the JCPOA, “maximum pressure,” and this war that may prove to have been the most disastrous move of all.

15/ Can this be reversed? Possibly but that’s the deeper flaw in US diplomacy with Iran: it offers only punishment, never credible incentives. Reversal would require real sanctions relief, political and strategic accommodation— in short, a serious & sustained diplomatic effort.

@SinaToossi Delusional

@SinaToossi “Iran can now mirror other regional powers, namely Israel: never confirm, never deny - just imply. This “threshold” position brings maximum strategic benefit with fewer consequences.” (Moty Kanias, senior Israeli intelligence official)

@SinaToossi Ridiculous beyond repair. Iran is adopting the coping of Hezbollah. 'we are equal with Israel, we are the crown of the axis bla bla bla' Power is power. Israel didnt use nuclear weapons against Iran. Without proof, there is no fear. Look at India Pakistan or Russia and the west.

@SinaToossi Good. I just wish that discussions like this would i) make clear that, as far as we know, Khamenei remains firmly opposed to nuclear weapons for moral reasons, as he has been since 2003, and ii) point out how extraordinary it would be if Iran wasn't deterrable like other states.

@SinaToossi I ain't reading all that sh*t. I just hope that the old man finally has the nukes.

@SinaToossi More realistic scenario: Iran gets none of the security benefits of a declared nuclear weapons state, but all of the liabilities of a stockpile of fissile material. And it is attacked incessantly anyway.

@SinaToossi Could just copy the exact model used by Koreans already proven to work or test an Iranian one in Korea

@SinaToossi آقا به ما امید ندید. رهبران مملکت مرد این کار نیستند.

@SinaToossi Game theory dictates they already have it. To be used as counter value. The last rocket tested had a peculiar name.

@SinaToossi They need to test the bomb not to prove to themselves they have the technological know how. They need to test the bomb to serve notice to the genocidal jewish supremacist freaks that they will kill them all if they dare attack Iran again.