If you have never been to China but your area of policy expertise is climate, you are probably pretty dovish on China. If you have never been to China but your area of policy expertise is military affairs, you are probably hawkish on China.

This makes sense in a way. If you have spent your career closely tracking the PLA's naval advances by looking at satellite photography and financial statements of Chinese naval firms, and have served as a sailor yourself, it would be very hard to not be a hawk, frankly.

You spend every day watching the Chinese build machines whose main purpose is to kill your fellow sailors; you see fantastic growth in their numbers and capabilities.

On the other hand, the guy who has done on the ground ethnographic research on Chinese pollution controls is going to have wildly different ideas about Chinese government priorities, and have more faith in Chinese public opinion, than our tonnage watcher. That guy will almost

I also think time frame matters. I was in China the 2016-2019 (and a summer 2013, but I really had no idea what was going on then), and that strongly influences how I view Chinese politics. Very different priors than someone who visited China first in 1997.

It will be interesting to see how those whose formative China experiences occur in the mid to late 2020s tend to view things. Right now I think it is too early to tell.

in this sense I think @semaforben's snipe was unfair and a bit childish, as the doves have their own list of people who have never been to China and come to their opinions about what should be done about its rise from afar.

There is also an interesting question on what extent china hawkery is correlated with time spent in Taiwan. This is completely off-the-cuff guessing on my part, but I think most who have spent 1> year in TW in aughts/2010s tend to be far hawkier than those who haven't

there is also a question about what sort of experience with China makes one most qualified to shape policy on it. Consider three people:

1) Gal who has lived in china for many years, maybe as a teacher or manager or some other job not directly connected to politics 2) Gal with significant expertise in a narrow domain (econometric data, naval analysis, etc) who has spent a career analyzing China in that domain

Of these three, only person #3 has actually met or had personal interactions with actual Chinese decision makers. On the other hand, their knowledge of Chinese society comes, at best, through second hand sources. Who is better placed to talk about how high level cadres think?

(The #2 option in this case would be someone who has read, in Chinese, every single damn thing Xi Jinping has ever said, but has never lived in China.)

IMHO each one of these three people has significant blind spots and you need all three to succeed. A lot of people who have anchored their identity around attacking the "establishment"will not like that answer but it is true.

@Scholars_Stage The more you’ve seen in the inside, especially at a grassroot level, not elite level with red carpet rolled out for every visit, the more likely you’ll be hawkish.

@Scholars_Stage Well correlated with money or other types of personal benefits

@Scholars_Stage You remain one of the few redeeming accounts on this app

@Scholars_Stage The entire argument that necessitates China residency or substantial visitings before one can opine on China accurately is illogical and not worth considering for a single reason: As far as the world is concerned, including Western countries what China says and how it lives its

@Scholars_Stage Then there are those of us who were in the private sector during our years living in China and have a lens that academic and journalists don’t have with circles of friends from China who tell us things that don’t get published in white papers or news articles unless they want to

@Scholars_Stage Snapshots probably do tho. Like if you lived thru COVID and was living in Shanghai...

@Scholars_Stage If you live in China for any reasonable length of crime, you learn about the corruption and tyranny of the state. Then you’re a hawk

@Scholars_Stage Academics are known for being economically stupid and committing perfidy

@Scholars_Stage I don't think it is this complicated, mate. Just check the incentive. In the end, it is all about SHEKEL.

@Scholars_Stage These arguments are ultimately premised on the assumption that in each country there are some individuals, or institutions, who/that enjoy complete and accurate knowledge of how the totality of their societies actually function….and that, therefore, the secret for any foreigner

@Scholars_Stage You don't work in "journalism" unless you echo the government these days.

@Scholars_Stage you can in theory be a dove even though you are dead sure that they will come for Taiwan, just by thinking that it's indefensible and/or they will stop after that just saying

@Scholars_Stage And the panda huggers tend to be people in business. If you go to China to make a ton of money, and do in fact make a ton of money, you are likely to have very positive feelings toward China.

@Scholars_Stage @grok how much money do US NGO's provide to steer sentiment on China

@Scholars_Stage Simple: different sources.Most of them don’t speak Chinese well, so they can’t talk to regular people both. then Scholars meet scholars; journalists meet dissidents.That’s why their views on China are worlds apart.

@Scholars_Stage "War correspondent" is every western journalist's highest aspiration regardless of where they have lived

@Scholars_Stage you're a disposable condom like the rest of your race im a white race hawk that's how stupid you capeshit white savior last samurai losers sound

@Scholars_Stage Pottinger et al has that white savior mentality, thinking themselves as Jesus sent to save the poor Chinese farmer who tried to cheat but got caught.

@Scholars_Stage Yeah and people that loves America are ignorant of Americans and had never been there. People that hate America are usually highly educated and knows history. Because only a fool could love a rapist Hollywood branded.

@Scholars_Stage Pottinger is a lies , we are delighted you people used his words, to formulate your strategy!

@Scholars_Stage Can you be America expert without speaking English, without ever going to America and while reading biased news papers tinted with propaganda?🤣🤣🤣