2/ The F-35 debate often centres around the Carriers and its Air Wing, but the letter J in JCA is often ignored. So what was around in 1998, and what was being replaced. Well the 2 x Invincible class Carriers were being replaced by 2 x much larger QEC class - the good news. But…

3/ The FAA had two small, under strength Sea Harrier squadrons (later to merge with the RAF Harriers and adopt the GR7 in JFH). And the RAF had 11 IDS Tornado and 3 Harrier squadrons. And all of this was eventually to be replaced by the 3 squadrons of JSF. A case of 16 into 3!

4/ Clearly those numbers don’t compute. Of course the F-35 offers so much more in terms of survivability and kill ratios, and a 16:3 ration might work on paper in a fight, but an 80% reduction in numbers matters - especially when you want to deliver 3 roles in 2 domains.

5/ And when one of those roles has an ambition to effectively embark the entire force on a regular basis, we can now see why what is portrayed as Service in-fighting is actually a mathematical equation that just doesn’t add up. But in the interest of fairness, let’s keep score:

6/ In comparison to 1998, the Navy has increased the tonnage of its Carrier fleet 4-fold, and retained platform numbers at 2. It has reduced its combat squadrons by 1 (50%), but as JSF is jointly manned its mostly retained its number of cockpits. All in all, not a bad outcome.

7/ Whereas, the RAF has gained 2 x JSF squadrons (albeit jointly manned with 42% FAA), but it has lost 14 combat squadrons, or somewhere around 200 cockpits - a c86% reduction in squadrons and cockpits. Not such a good deal, but it gets worse, much worse..

8/ Whilst the sheer reduction is painful enough, you then need to factor in the compounding pressure of asking that reduced number to fulfill Navy tasking on a regular basis. The simple truth is that 3 into 16 won’t go, and if you try and make it work as if it does it will break.

9/ When you add in the high operational tasking that has endured on the RAF’s combat air force for the last 2 decades, the Typhoon force (6 squadrons that replaced the 10 x ADV & Jag in 1998) has had to do some seriously heavy lifting.

10/ So the next time someone tells you the RAF is conspiring against the Navy or isn’t meeting its part of the bargain, pick up your 1998 SDR and your calculator and do some maths. Something doesn’t add up, and we wonder why it doesn’t work now - go figure…

@gregbagwell If we're talking about SDR 98, I'm pretty sure that the Tornado replacement was intended to be the later cancelled FOAS. JCA was intended to be a carrier aircraft to replace FA2, starting as FCBA in 96, but then evolving to include Harrier GR after SDR as part of JFH.

@andymedcraft FOAS and JCA were merged.

@gregbagwell >you need to cast your mind back to the 1998 SDR no never

@gregbagwell 1998... Spoke to an SDR staffer about the need for a MSAM... we still don't have one that isn't attached to a ship, let alone a LRSAM...

@gregbagwell @threadreaderapp unroll

@gregbagwell I was expecting to hear George Osborne's name somewhere in this....

@gregbagwell There were 3 Invincible class carriers in 1998. Invincible, the first to be decommissioned, left the fleet in 2005.