Some observers have described the fall of Pokrovsk as “sudden.” That may be true if one followed the wrong analysts. In reality, the defense deterioration was apparent as early as 2024 and became unmistakable by 2025, as the underlying dynamics made the outcome nearly inevitable:
2/ That the city continued to hold out until November is, in itself, an achievement. Still, the rapid loss of positions in summer/fall 2024, which left logistics vulnerable and exposed the flanks, combined with manpower shortages, largely dictated the outcome now unfolding
3/ Launching a counteroffensive capable of retaking the city and securing its flanks, or even holding for another year, would have required diverting significant resources from other sectors of the front, a tradeoff that would result in disastrous situation elsewhere.
4/ The broader battlefield dynamics remains unchanged. Russian forces advance despite sustaining higher casualty ratios in KIA and WIA. Persistent issues within Ukrainian units, including manpower shortages and command and control difficulties, are still in place.
5/ The key task after withdrawal will be to prevent a repeat of the 2024 situation, when Russian forces achieved rapid gains in both the Ocheretyne and Pokrovsk sectors in a short period of time. Ukraine’s readiness behind Pokrovsk appears stronger than it was behind Avdiivka
6/ Overall, the defense of Pokrovsk in 2025, given the circumstances, is a notable accomplishment. Yet the ultimate result of the defense will depend on whether the AFU command will decide to reinforce the city or conduct an organized withdrawal to better positions
@Tatarigami_UA Indeed. The stubborn defense of a city against superior odds, with the enemy deploying immense advantages in weaponry of all kinds, for a little less than a year (the front line approached Pokrovsk in November of last year) is fairly described as heroic.
@Tatarigami_UA Fair assessment of the past 👌 For the future, it's a prediction, based and highly probable yes, but still a prediction at this stage.
@Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA I wonder is it it possible to dig tunnel routes for supply and reinforcement in some of the main cities behind the front? These battles take months and there’s no way this would not be possible by determined engineer crews. Imagine if some of these fortress
@Tatarigami_UA What troubles me is that there appear to be "multiple Pokrovsks" developing across the entire front. Several cities have been or are being encircled. There is clearly a manpower crisis in the UAF.
@Tatarigami_UA I believe Ukraine urgently requires powerful air strike capabilities, such as Glide Bombs, missiles, and heavy drones. Could you provide some insight into whether Ukraine has any Glide Bomb projects planned for the future?
@Tatarigami_UA Pretty sure the Ukrainians knew this. They are trading space for time, while inflicting as much pain as possible on the invaders. What alternative did they have? Just walk away, roll out the red carpet and invite the invaders in? They are doing what needs to be done to survive.
@Tatarigami_UA There have been russian forces periodically entering the city and needing to be flushed out for months It was just too big to flush out this time
@Tatarigami_UA Should we expect that Zelenskyy will finally resolve the manpower issue? Will the conscripts finally stop deserting? Do the Ukranians have will to resist? Because that will ultimately decide the outcome of the war.
@Tatarigami_UA Perhaps having one of the new corps in command and control of the AO will make a difference in this battle, versus historical tactical control by Syrskyi and his staff in Kyiv.
@Tatarigami_UA Watched the documentary by @DylanBurns177, it fully supports your point.
@Tatarigami_UA Since no one in Ukraine wants a general mobilization, the AU is chronically understaffed. The Ukrainians should be honest with themselves and admit that they have already, de facto, accepted defeat on the eastern front.
@Tatarigami_UA russia will be handed a heap of rubble but Ukraine will return
@Tatarigami_UA Yes
@Tatarigami_UA With Ukrainian army and moral quickly disappearing it will be hard to fight back
@Tatarigami_UA @threadreaderapp unroll please
@Tatarigami_UA tell us who lost Vozdvizhenka (Воздвиженка) which was the last defense line along the axis to Pokrovsk
@Tatarigami_UA why do you still make new brigades instead of restore the depleted one? why not rotate with the ones from belarushitistan ? sometimes I do not get what your High Command wants.