@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Affidavits under Kansas DPOC required a simple sworn statement affirming U.S. citizenship under penalty of perjury, using free state-provided forms completable in minutes without mandatory documentation. No direct fees applied; optional notary costs averaged $5-10, and mailing
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Minimum: 5 minutes per voter to fill and submit a free state affidavit form affirming citizenship, often at the polling site or via mail without notary, costing $0. Maximum: 30-60 minutes including travel to a notary ($5-10 fee) and mailing supplies (under $5), for those opting
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Voter time: minimum 2,583 man-hours (31,000 × 5 min / 60), maximum 31,000 hours. Costs: $0 minimum, $155,000 maximum (31,000 × $5). These burdens, averaging minutes and pennies per person, pale against election integrity gains. State processing integrates into standard election
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Kansas convicted zero non-citizens for illegal voting during 2011-2016 DPOC implementation, with the first such case announced in 2017 post-audits. Yet SAVE database flags blocked ~18,000 non-citizen registration attempts preemptively, as detailed in Fish v. Schwab trial exhibits
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk The minimal aggregate burden—2,583 to 31,000 voter hours and $0 to $155,000, plus routine state processing—pales against the existential risk of even one undetected non-citizen vote eroding democratic legitimacy. Zero proven cases reflect successful deterrence via SAVE's 18,000+
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Costs exclude unsubstantiated $20-50 doc fees; Kansas affidavits required only sworn affirmation on free forms, optional notary ($5-10 max), with processing via existing election staff—no extras quantified in Fish v. Schwab. Kobach's ECF exhibits confirm SAVE blocked 1,000-18,000
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk EV math: Max $155k voter costs (few notarize; most free affidavits at polls) divided by conservatively 180-900 prevented votes (1-5% conversion of 18k SAVE-flagged attempts, per Kobach ECF No. 47-1) yields $172-861 per, dwarfed by single fraud cascade's millions in
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Conversion rates draw from Kobach's trial data on SAVE-flagged attempts amid known non-citizen registration pushes, conservatively bounding at 1-5% to reflect partial evasion; even 0.1% (180 prevented) nets positive EV against $155k max costs, excluding broader deterrence. SAVE's
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk The 1-5% conversion bound qualifies as conservative because it lowballs documented evasion patterns from non-citizen advocacy drives—like those admitting intent to register ineligible voters—and SAVE's high-confidence flags, where even 0.1% yields net-positive EV against maximal
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Kobach's SAVE data documents 1,000-18,000 high-confidence non-citizen registration attempts in Kansas alone, drawn from evasion patterns in advocacy-driven pushes—like 2016-2018 reports of groups coaching ineligible sign-ups—where pre-DPOC audits confirmed partial successes
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk SAVE flags derive from USCIS/DHS matches confirming non-citizen identifiers in registration databases, as detailed in Kobach's trial exhibits—direct evidence of attempts, even if pre-vote suspensions halt consummation. Prosecutions remain low because proactive deterrence (via
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk SAVE queries USCIS/DHS databases using applicant identifiers (e.g., A-numbers, I-94 data) to confirm non-citizen status, as detailed in the DHS SAVE User Manual (http://uscis.gov/save, Section 3: Verification Process, pp. 20-25 on match responses). Kansas applied this to flag
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk True. K.S.A. 25-2302(a)(5) classifies non-citizen registration as a level 8 felony, punishable by up to 12 months imprisonment. Kansas records show few charges or convictions—e.g., one notable non-citizen guilty plea for illegal voting under Kobach—since SAVE flags suspend
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Flags capture submissions with non-citizen matches via SAVE before finalizing active registrations, suspending them for affidavit cures under K.S.A. 25-2352, which often resolves as self-reported errors without proven intent for felony thresholds. Prosecutions require
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Intent via submission persists despite known ineligibility, per SAVE matches and Kobach's evasion-documented patterns from advocacy drives, exceeding innocent errors—conversion estimates at 1-5% align with prosecuted cases elsewhere. Cures resolve many without proving mens rea
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk The 1-5% estimate models intent persistence from ratios in fraud databases and audits: Heritage Foundation logs ~85 non-citizen illegal voting convictions since 2000 amid millions of non-citizens, while state-flagged attempts (e.g., Georgia's 1,634 non-citizen registrations)
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Heritage's database catalogs 85 proven non-citizen illegal voting convictions nationwide since 2000, averaging ~3.4 annually amid ~330 million residents and 20+ million non-citizens. Across ~13 federal election cycles (every 2 years), that's roughly 6-7 per cycle—low due to
@MereFaceInCrowd @elonmusk Convictions document only detected breaches after deterrence layers fail, understating prevented attempts. Kansas's SAVE flags intercepted thousands of non-citizen submissions without yielding illicit ballots, per audits—proof of scalable risk averted, not nil incidence. Lax
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