1- The frontline in december 2022 Days after the end of the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensive, russian army was controling less than 50% of the Donetsk region. The battle for Bakhmut just started and Donetsk was still threatened. This map may seem old or out of context, but

2- Three years in Donbas The last 3 years of war have mainly been fought in Donbass. After very slow and costly advances for the Russian army in Bakhmut and Avdiivka in 2023, the offensive towards Pokrovsk accelerated in 2024, with the Ukrainian army surrendering the best

3- Donbas progression 🔴2021 🟠2022 🟡2023 🟡2024 ⚪️2025 ⚫️Administrative Border Here is the progress of russian forces in Donbass since february 24th 2022. We can see how slow it has been and the acceleration in 2024 and 2025. There is still a long path to go for Russia.

4- One last stand Seen from Kyiv perspective, the ukrainian Donbass is now much smaller than before, with Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad currently falling, the 4 remaining cities around Kramatorsk will be the last stand for Ukraine in Donbass. This map may be disturbing isn't it ?

5- The last Donbas fortress As you saw on the first picture of this thread, with the fortification overlay, we can clearly see how much has been built in front of the remaning cities and behind them. Every additional month is Donbas is more fortifications behind.

6- The new Donbas line method In 2025, Ukraine started digging new style of defenses, with : -3 ditches filled with barbed wire -1 dragon teeths with barbed wire on top -2 barbed wire row I've called these lines the "New Donbas Lines", because it started in the western part of

7- Old and new fortifications In red, you can see the new fortifications on the "New Donbas Lin" style. In yellow, you can find old fortifications (some are obsolete) and new ones that are still very useful, especially in the case of anti-tank ditches and anti-infantry obstacles

8- Railway logistics After for maps where the north was on the left, we are back at normal. With the end of Pokrovsk as the main Donbas railhub, new cities are being used for this purpose. They became, thus, strategic cities and objectives for Russia. We have Lozova (the

9- Road logistics The road logistics have also changed a lot recently. Pokrovsk has been replaced by smaller cities playing as frontline logistics hubs. Pavlohrad and Lozova are again playing the role of main supply hubs, together with Zaporizhia.

10- Dnipro and Zaporizhia soon threatened ? The Russian push towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and the initial advance towards Zaporizhzhia raise fears of a long-term threat to the two major cities in central Ukraine. The immediate concern is not so much the fall of these

11- 23 bridges on the Dnipro river Ukrainian logistics are severely hampered by the Dnieper River, a vast waterway, spanned between Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia (the Kherson bridges having been destroyed) by only 23 bridges (4 of which are solely railway bridges, and a dozen mixed-use

12- Across the Dnipro Ukrainian strategic reserves are thus positioned west of the Dnieper River and are not intended for deployment in the east. They are there to cover the rear, provide logistics, air defense, training, border security, and so on. In total, it is likely that

13- An encircled Ukraine De-zooming is also very important, on this map, you can see that Ukraine is encircled on all sides, it has to defend all these borders and frontlines... It also gives us a snapshot of the potential future Ukraine...

14- Between Forest and river The Oskil front is also quite active. When looking at a map, one doesn't necessarily notice two very important landscape features: Two long, wide rivers (the Donets and the Oskil) and the dense surrounding forests. The Oskil River is a significant

15- Northern forests Talking about forests, we should'nt forget about the large forests in northern Ukraine, where troops, fortifications, air defense an other assets can be easily hidden. It would also complicate any offensive, but is allowing DRG infiltration.

16- 2024-2025 We didn't look that much into russian perspective, this time, we can see in green all the russian progress in 2024 and in 2025. Interesting right ?

17- Remaining fortifications With the same point of view (and obviously, you need to click to zoom in), we can see in red all the remaining ukrainian fortifications in eastern, southern and north-eastern Ukraine.

18- Cities, fortifications and rivers east of the Dnipro Another map, this one on the highest resoltion possible, showing the view from the Dnipro river

19- Diplomatic negociations : On this map, you can see the borders of the 4 "annexed" oblasts, the black line⚫️ is what Putin official wants. The red line🔴 iw what he had before the war and the white line ⚪️ is what he currently has.

20- Ukrainian and Russian units For the last map, I will show you the excellent work of @UAControlMap with all the deployed units of both sides. Always remember more than 80% of the russian army is currently in Ukraine.

Here is the end of this thread. Tell me which maps do you prefer here with the 3 numbers (for example, i will say 5/3/14). I reached 80 000 followers, thank you very much ! Don't forget to follow me on LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/posts...

If you want to support me to continue making maps and analysis like this, you can do it here : http://buymeacoffee.com/clemen... However, the most important is to follow my account and ❤️🔃, thank you !

@clement_molin Good post. This is in a lot of ways how I see it. Some differences in speculation, but the key part here is the Dnepr and how it affects Blue distribution. Now, I don't really care about this tbh, but I've seen a lot of posts from you berating people to credit, but I do not see

@J1MMYJAMJAM Yeah, your right, for playfra, we are working together most of the time, so i'm trying to credit him most of the times, but like we both use each others work on that subject. For you, indeed, I took the red minefields, mea culpa !

@clement_molin Wonderful work, Clement, but I’m a little distressed that it may be helpful to the Russians? You organize the information better than they do!

@clement_molin Your thread is gaining traction! #TopUnroll https://threadreaderapp.com/th... 🙏🏼@AVAXX_FR for 🥇unroll

@clement_molin @threadreaderapp unroll

@clement_molin Superbe boulot…merci 💪

@clement_molin Thank you for a very interesting thread!

@clement_molin Tik tok… These will fall in spring.

@clement_molin Super travail Merci

@clement_molin I appreciate your maps a lot, but could you please include the scale into the maps? That would help reading them significantly.

@clement_molin What a great thread — thanks!

@clement_molin Extraordinario trabajo. El problema principal de lo que muestras es que Ucrania no tiene más opción que construir líneas defensivas pasivas. No hay una evolución en esa estrategia. Lo que ocurre es que enfrente si hay una gran evolución en las tácticas en base a la entrada...

@clement_molin 19-3-4