Nationally, the median House district voted for Trump by 3.1 pts in 2024. Depending on the final outcome of redistricting, Dems will need to hold/flip seats that voted for Trump by 3-5 pts to win control.
Today, the VA House of Delegates is effectively 51D-49R. But there are eight GOP delegates in districts that voted for Harris in '24, another six in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts, and another seven in districts Trump won by 5-10 pts.
If Dems win something like 55-59 HoD seats tonight, it would be a sizable gain but would indicate Dems are pretty much only flipping Harris districts. Nationally, there are only three GOP members in Harris districts - not enough to win Dems the House.
However, if Dems win 60+ House of Delegates seats, it would indicate a Dem enthusiasm/turnout edge consistent w/ Dems having a good chance to flip the U.S. House, despite a possible 4-8 seat GOP net gain from newly gerrymandered maps.
If Dems win 63+ HoD seats, it would be consistent w/ a lot of strong overperformances we've seen for Dems in downballot races so far in '25 and indicate that Dems should be considered favorites for House control in '26.
Big difference between the VA HoD & U.S. House: today, there are 13 House Dems in Trump seats but zero VA HoD Dems in Trump districts. That gives Dems a head start towards the House majority. Still, I'll be watching the extent to which VA Dems break into Trump turf tonight.
@Redistrict Pending SCOTUS ruling, depending which way it goes, could make this analysis mute.
@Redistrict @Cernovich America First means NO foreign lobbies buying our Congress. BAN AIPAC – $100M+ to crush dissent in 2024 alone. NO DUAL CITIZENSHIP for officials. Loyalty to ONE flag. END THE FED – Not federal. No reserves. Funds endless wars. Time to break the chains. Retweet if you’re done
@Redistrict For election analysis, pay the most attention to @Redistrict.
@Redistrict Respectfully, Dave, I do get the argument and will be interested in the results. But using it as a bellwether seems to be an overreach when the AG situation and the VA federal job losses will muddy the waters terribly. But it’s still interesting
@Redistrict @nashvegas__ Does Dave realize democrats being tied on the congressional ballet a year out is bad for democrats
@Redistrict I think that this a bad metric because down ballot races in Virginia are usually redder because it is still a southern state.
@Redistrict ooh, massive plane crash bro...and there's the news cycle
@Redistrict @Zigmanfreud this guy correctly called the 2016, 2020 and 2024 maps a month out... FYI
@Redistrict And the Virgina AG race
@Redistrict Me too
@Redistrict Agree
@Redistrict My simple peek into results. Do the city folks in VA want males to ogle/harass females in bathroom facilities and do they approve of aberrant behavior in their AG?
@Redistrict @MediumBuying Except for where muskrat cheated!
@Redistrict I'll never understand the appeal of MAGA Trumpism. It's pure ignorance and corruption with a heaping helping of incompetence.