Published: November 5, 2025
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A Polymarket user under the nickname comon119 made a huge bet that China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2025. The degen allocated a full $120k to this insane bet - and if the invasion happens, he’ll receive a payout of $1.5M. Does he really know something, or is he just

Image in tweet by tsybka

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket He’s already lost - the waters in the Strait make it so that an invasion can really only happen realistically in October or May. Too choppy otherwise

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket if the invasion happens, how does he cash out? or is the payout locked until resolution?

@arsalannova @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket if the fact of the invasion is confirmed, he will receive cash out 2 hours after proposed market by uma

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket maybe he a general lmao

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket He’s neighbors with the army base

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket oof - already down 85k of that.

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Most of my Taiwanese political analyst frens think this market will resolve to "absolutely no"

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket It’s called market making: he has a adjacent bet on another acc

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Bro has -$1 304 112,10 All-time PNL and a lot of sports positions, insiders don't look like that 😅

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket What map did you use? looks interesting

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Maybe he just wants to trade the volatility of this bet?

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket The resolution on this is fishy. I wish "military offensive" was more tightly bounded.

Image in tweet by tsybka

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Sometimes we call big whales insiders because we like conspiracies, but most of these profiles are degenerates with large portfolios, perhaps even mega-nationalists

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket probably just tax loss harvesting before the end of year

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket So, we can say that Xi is using Polymarket? Real POLYSEASON!

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Is it possible only for liqudity and baiting?

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket This is like using L2 trading data to understand the market ..

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket impossible China and the US have reached an agreement

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket lol, I really hope he's a degen, 'cause the last thing we need is more wars...

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Sea is hard for them to cross and invade. Not like Vietnam War, they hide under the forest and mountain to invade the South.

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket That's a massive bet! 🎲 It raises questions about insider info or just high-risk speculation. With tensions rising in the region, it's a bold move.

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket bro clearly knows more than us if he’s dropping 120k

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket also 2026 & 2027 will absolutely resolve to no lmao

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket He’s neighbors with the army base

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket interesting to see how his total deposit amount looks like

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket -1m$ PnL, he looks more like a gambler than an insider.

@tsybka_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Invasion would happen at the end of 2026. He is done

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