1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s. T-72 and T-90s and specifics on the industry will come in the second part.
2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology: https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1...
3/ Then IFVs: https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1...
4/ As always, first I want to thank @CovertCabal and @A36848080 in particular for helping with the sat imagery. Check Covert’s video on the topic as well! https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
5/ With the introduction dealt with, and as always too, first I want to make some things clear: we have to consider that for the last year Russia has decisively switched tactics to infantry and light vehicles intensive ones.. https://x.com/wartranslated/st...
6/ Light infantry intense tactics have certainly yielded good results to Russia, as long as they don’t give a shit about the lives of their own men. https://x.com/RALee85/status/1...
8/ Even then, Russia has recently restarted mechanized assaults, tho not with the same intensity as before. With increasingly worse weather, mechanized pushes become feasible and relatively effective once again. https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1...
9/ All that said, Russia has spent this year replenishing their armor fleet and has increased refurb and production rates. https://x.com/T_90AK/status/19...
10/ While earlier in the war most AFVs taken from storage bases were in good enough condition to be sent to the front without refurbishment, that’s not the case anymore.
11/ As always, I want to stress that not every vehicle refurbished meant there was another one lost in combat. The Russian army expanded massively after November 2022. https://x.com/HighMarsed/statu...
12/ It’s not just refurbishing and producing tanks, they also repair battle-damaged ones. So it’s not 1:1 to storage bases figures regarding demothballed equipment. https://x.com/WillKnowler/stat...
14/ So, let’s now see the rates for each tank type! We shall start by T-62s. We can see that they have become over time in one of the backbones of the Russian tank fleet, per @WarSpotting.
15/ T-62s were already used as the main model for mobilization tanks since 2017/18, related also to supplies to Assad’s Syria. https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/st...
16/ However, T-62s have since late 2022 risen to become one of the backbones of the Russian tank fleet. They’re mainly refurbed and modernized at the 103rd BTRZ, located near Chita.
17/ This base had a huge backlog of T-62s before the war, as we can see.
18/ However, over the war, and related to their increasing usage and loss rates in Ukraine, this factory has seen its T-62 related activity spike.
19/ Just compare these two pictures from 2025:
20/ The piles of scrap are a good indicator as well: https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1...
21/ Even today, we can see more T-62s being sent to the 103rd from storage bases, as the backlog is worked through and T-62s given to the army.
24/ I’ve been tracking T-62 demothballing rates at storage bases, and this year has seen a spike in this too (also for other tank types, as we’ll see further below this thread): #gid=0 class="text-blue-500 hover:underline" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://docs.google.com/spread...
25/ Also worth noting, as you can see in the T-62 graphics, the 103rd has increasingly become more efficient not just at mere refurbs, but also modernizations. https://x.com/naalsio26/status...
26/ There’s barely any standard T-62 losses, but rather modernized T-62M/MV or M/MV Obr. 2022 (cheap mobilization upgrade packages). https://x.com/T_90AK/status/19...
27/ Which also makes sense considering it’s been a while since the 103rd BTRZ focused almost exclusively on T-62 and barely does refurbs for other types of AFVs anymore. https://x.com/T_90AK/status/19...
28/ I believe however that by year we’ve passed the peak of T-62 refurbs. That they’re working on the wrecked T-62 hulls parked at the factory yards for years means the ones in storage are equally terribly preserved and time intensive to reactivate. https://x.com/T_90AK/status/19...
29/ Therefore, I estimate a refurb/modernization rate of 300-500 T-62s, with 400 being the most realistic figure. This is considering storage shipments, BTRZ activity and sightings of active T-62s both within proper Russia and in Ukraine. https://x.com/Rhaescuporis/sta...
30/ This might be also related to that contract announced in 2022 about the 103rd BTRZ being ordered 800 T-62s, which by now they surely have achieved: https://x.com/Rhaescuporis/sta...
31/ Oryx accounts for 311 T-62 losses, and that’s considering 20-30% unpublished losses and lack of mechanized attacks: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/...