The natural gas thesis is actually so simple. And I’m not using, whether related volatility to get ahead of myself here. The data centre guys will take every single molecule up to $5-7/MMBtu. The LNG exporters (international buyers) will take every single molecule up to
They’ll take the coal too.
⬆️
The whole point is LNG was a pulling mechanism before and now it’s a clearing mechanism.
-$3.67
Well this is just wrong.
$5.50 HH is $8 TTF/JKM. I think that’s tenable. Yes that assumes lower capital recovery for the exporters, which is also reasonable given the market dynamics.
Well, yes and no. Yes in the short term but I’m talking longer-term. There isn’t enough longer-term.
lking about trading spreads into this winter or next, I'm talking about having a stick-by-stick view of what each basin can provide and at what price with existing infra, and having a view on long term global demand, switching costs, and data center needs. Please poke holes,
2019 called, it wants its thesis back.
On a long enough time horizon what they want to do, assuming it's economically defensible on the serving data center inference side, will show up in demand. Doubly so given they're locating with supply. Disagree that supply additions can outpace demand additions sub-$4/MMBtu