Published: October 10, 2026
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Can Ukraine Burn Refineries Without America? On Friday, Donald Trump announced a deal with Putin to buy Russian diesel, and within hours his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Miami telling the Ukrainians that if they keep striking Russian oil refineries, Washington may stop sharing intelligence. That is according to the Financial Times, which also reports that the Ukrainian team cut its trip short and promised to carry on burning them anyway. So can they? The short answer is yes, only less elegantly. A refinery is the size of a small town and has not moved since Brezhnev built it, so Ukraine does not need the CIA to find one. The drones are Ukrainian, the target lists are Ukrainian, and Kyiv was setting fire to Russian oil plants long before Washington started helping. Europe can fill, since France has always insisted its intelligence is its own to share, and commercial radar satellites from firms like Finland's ICEYE are already in Ukrainian hands. The real danger lies elsewhere. If Washington also switches off early warning of Russian missile launches, as it did for eight days in March 2025, Ukrainians will die in their beds so that American diesel can cost a little less.

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