Prof Francois Balloux

The situation in Gaza is horrific, and if anything its is getting worse by the day, but the estimates of ~400,000 deaths that have been circulating recently are not plausible.
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The origin of this number is a (mis-)reading of an excellent piece of analysis that used IDF data (link in the thread below).
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https://x.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1931106987582120438

Importantly, the study did not estimate death tolls. By summing up the number of people in the three 'safe zones' provided in the figures, one gets ~1.85M, a shortfall of ~400k people in Gaza relative to Oct 7. After accounting for the ~100k people who left Gaza, this might suggest ~300k deaths.
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Though those numbers are very rough, and there are likely still people outside 'safe zones' Also the IDF may have wilfully underestimated the number of people that have to be fed to make their numbers 'look good'.
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So what's the plausible number ofdeaths? Based on extrapolations from UNWRA or PRCS personnel who have been killed, I get ~ 65,000-85,000 violent civilian deaths. I obtain significantly higher numbers if I use healthcare workers (but that's another story I might cover in a separate thread). 
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A recent study has just come out. It is based on surveys of 2000 households and looks robust, but if anything it is expected to lead to an underestimated death toll (i.e. the study design does not allow including households where all adults have been killed).
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.06.19.25329797v3

They estimate 66,600-86,800 violent deaths and 4500-12,500 excess non-violent deaths. The results are in line with a Lancet 'capture-recapture' study [not the (in)famous guesstimate Lancet study], and significantly higher than the Gaza Ministry of Health confirmed deaths.
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I wish to stress that those figures (~4% of the civilian population in 19 months) are exceptionally high for modern conflicts and reflect very poorly on the operational discipline of the IDF. There is no need to artificially inflate those numbers.
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Also, claims that the Gaza death toll is higher than any hard data suggests are playing into the hands of the small cottage industry of Gaza atrocity deniers often paid by shady think tanks.
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