Han Akamatsu 赤松

This tweet may make me sound lunatic but I’ll try to break down what’s going on in the markets, and connect the dots for you guys, hopefully making it as clear as possible:

So let’s dive into this, and see how us $GME investors stand on this stressed environment: 🧵 

1. Bond Yields are spiking..

• Yields on US 10Y and 30Y Treasuries are going vertical.
• The entire yield curve is “blowing out”, this means interest rates across all maturities are jumping fast.
• The 20Y crossed 5%, and 30Y is right behind. 

2. Why this all happening?

There’s massive selling of bonds, likely by major holders like China..

When big players sell bonds, prices fall and yields rise.

Some are calling this an unwind, not a calm selloff, but a fire sale. That means someone somewhere is under pressure and needs to raise cash.

3. Swap Spreads Are Collapsing

The 3Y SOFR swap spreads are in free fall..

This means stress in the plumbing of the financial system, banks and institutions are struggling to find cash or safe collateral..

It’s similar to what we saw in 2008 before things unraveled.. 

4. Yields going vertical, including the 10Y spiking to 4.5% and the Japanese 30Y over 5%.

This kind of move screams forced liquidation, not normal rebalancing. 

5. Okay now let’s break it down.. What this actually means?

Imagine you buy a bond for $1,000 that pays you $50 a year.

That $50 is the yield, in this case, 5%.

Now let’s say nobody wants bonds anymore, and the price drops to $900.

You’re still getting $50 a year.
But now $50 on $900 = 5.56% yield.

So as the bond’s price goes down, the yield goes up.

6. Why do yields go up?

People are selling the bonds.
Like China dumping treasuries, or funds liquidating to meet margin calls.

That pushes prices down = yields up.

Now, Investors demand more return for risk. If the economy looks unstable, investors want higher compensation to hold U.S. debt.
So the yields rise to attract buyers.

The Fed might keep rates high, or hike..
Higher short term interest rates bleed into longer term bonds, raising yields across the curve.

7. High yields are like gravity pulling down the whole financial system.

Borrowing becomes more expensive.
Corporations, governments, and individuals all have to pay more to borrow money.

Stocks and risk assets suffer, because higher yields make bonds more attractive, people sell stocks to buy safe yield.

Leverage cracks & hedge funds, banks, using borrowed money like in swaps or their short plays, now face higher collateral requirements.

8. Now what’s that for GME?

Higher yields mean:

Margin calls become more likely.
Bond related hedges, like swaps, will soon start breaking.

And as stress builds… those synthetic short positions hidden in leverage may soon start to unravel. 👀

9. Now, let’s bring in what we learned from the House of Cards and related DDs..

Hedge funds use Total Return Swaps (TRS) to hide short positions on stocks like GME..

These don’t show up in normal short interest reports, but still require collateral and counterparty agreements behind the scenes.

10. When long collateral bleeds..

When the bond market bleeds like this, the value of long collateral falls, because yields rising = bond prices falling..

If a fund was using treasuries or other safe assets as margin to support a leveraged position like shorting GME synthetically through swaps, their collateral is now worth less.

They get a margin call. ☎️ 

If they can’t meet it? They’re forced to sell something else, like stocks, or their swaps start to unwind.

Looks what’s going on the stock market right now.. 👀

11. The whole system is stressed.

Bond yields blowing out, swap spreads crashing, and derivatives rules getting quietly changed behind the scenes, like ICC-014..

Personally, I think the shorts are running out of cover. The same tools they used to hide exposure, swaps, long bonds, are now turning into liabilities..

If only one domino falls..

Just like in 2008 where one toxic product, the CDOs exposed the system, here it’s TRS and synthetic shorting..

And this time, the system has a visible flaw they can’t hide anymore: GME’s real float is nowhere near what’s been borrowed and sold..

12. So are we in the endgame, again? 😅

While the entire financial system looks like it’s cracking under its own weight, GME is sitting on over $6.3B in cash, completely debt free.

Ryan Cohen managed to secure 6.3B for us before this systemic collapse..
No debt. 

And now he’s actively buying more shares, along with Larry Cheng from the board of directors. 

How can we not be bullish right now..
I’m good with my $GME shares.

End of the thread, hope you guys have a wonderful day. ☀️