Oskar Pietrewicz

North Korea is playing a bigger role in Russia’s war on Ukraine than one might think. And it may turn out to be one of the pieces in the larger puzzle of U.S.-Russian talks on a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. I would consider several possibilities 🧵🇰🇵🇷🇺🇺🇸

First, Russia’s proposal to withdraw North Korean troops from the frontline as a concession. This would require an explicit acknowledgement that such forces are fighting at all, which Russia and North Korea have so far denied. At the moment, such a proposal seems unlikely because

North Korean troops are crucial to the success of the Russian counter-offensive in the Kursk Oblast. It would therefore be in Russia’s interest first to retake the Kursk Oblast with the support of North Korean troops, which would strengthen Russia’s negotiating position in talks

with the U.S., and then to offer to withdraw North Korean forces.

Second, the Russian proposal to engage in negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. The Russian ambassador in Pyongyang has already supported the idea of resuming talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.

Thanks to the increased cooperation over the past three years, Russia can present itself to the U.S. as an important player on the Korean Peninsula, ready to bring North Korea to the negotiating table and play an indirect role in it. And perhaps be willing to participate in the

development of a new security architecture in Northeast Asia - initially as a state guaranteeing, for example, a nuclear and missile arms control agreement between the U.S. and the DPRK. If I were Russia, I would adapt my proposal to the American idea of a 'reverse Nixon'.

From Russia’s point of view, it would be necessary to convince the U.S. that its talks with the DPRK would help the process of weaning partners/allies away from China.

I do not believe that North Korea coordinates all its actions with Russia. I also doubt that North Korea will

remain passive and fully align itself with the Russian idea. But the fact remains that it has been reaping tangible benefits from cooperation with Russia since 2022. As long as it can, North Korea will 1) use Russian support to strengthen its position in possible talks with

the U.S.; 2) demand more political, economic, military-technological support from Russia in exchange for military support. However, there is no certainty that such close cooperation between Russia and North Korea will continue after the war in Ukraine - the DPRK’s importance may

diminish with the rebuilding of the Russian military. Moreover, I believe that both the Koreans and the Russians are aware that, depending on how the situation evolves, they may trade themselves in talks with the U.S. I think that at some point the Koreans will try to negotiate

with the Americans again, hoping that this will lead, for example, to a weakening of the U.S. alliance with South Korea. Would they use Russian support to achieve this? Absolutely. Would they let themselves be led by the Russians? Definitely not.