Ryan Heath

Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. In addition to a kickoff return TD, Rashid Shaheed finished 2nd on the Seahawks in target share (16.7%) and receiving yards (67).

This was the first time he’s out-targeted Cooper Kupp and A.J. Barner.

2. Kyle Pitts has seen target shares of 29%, 22%, 24%, and (today) 33% in four games with Kirk Cousins and without Drake London.

He averages 64.0 receiving YPG in this sample (~TE2), but just 12.4 FPG with zero touchdowns.

3. Here’s how inside-the-10 carries have been split over the past four games between Bijan Robinson / Tyler Allgeier:

Week 11: 3 / 1

Week 12: 1 / 0

Week 13: 3 / 2

Week 14: 0 / 2

That said, both of Allgeier’s today were on the team’s final drive when they were down 37 to 9.

4. Tee Higgins was in and out of the game due to concussion evaluations.

Despite that, he led the team in receiving on a season-high 30.6% target share.

5. Need a TE streamer? Here’s what you’d have gotten if you’d just played a team’s TE2 (by routes) against the Bengals every week:

- 3.3 targets/game
- 35.2 receiving YPG (more than Theo Johnson and Cade Otton)
- 8.0 FPG (more than TJ Hockenson and David Njoku)

From this list!

6. I have to cover the Titans backfield again? Sure.

Tony Pollard’s last five games: 72% carry share, 10.7 weighted opportunities/game, 11.2 FPG

Today: 76% carry share, 13.1 weighted opportunities, and… 28.1 fantasy points.

But a few obvious things:

- Tyjae Spears has a 14% target share to Pollard’s 7% over this span.

- The Titans are massive underdogs against defenses that will actually want to tackle during each of the next two weeks.

7. Harold Fannin has been insane through three Shedeur Sanders starts:

- 25.0% target share (~TE1)
- 65.7 receiving YPG (~TE2)
- 15.4 FPG (~TE2)

David Njoku has been banged up/barely playing, and looked belabored even before he caught the touchdown and injured his knee again.

8. Through the first three quarters of this 31-0 blowout, Chris Rodriguez received 71% of the backfield’s rush attempts.

He was at 54% and 52% over the previous two games, with 5 of 8 carries inside the 10 over the last 3.

Not much aside from misery is going on in Washington,

9. Despite the Vikings winning 31-0 and JJ McCarthy posting career-highs in passer rating (129.2) and ANY/A (7.81)...

Justin Jefferson commanded just a 17.4% target share.

This was just the second time over the past three years that Jefferson didn’t receive at least 20% of the

10. De’Von Achane left the game midway through the 2nd quarter with a rib injury.

This may not matter (as it sounds like Achane is okay), but once he left:

Jaylen Wright: 81% backfield carry share, 3 targets

Ollie Gordon: 19% carry share, but did replace Wright at the 7 to

11. The Jets’ target shares with Brady Cook under center (Tyrod left with a groin injury after two drives):

John Metchie - 23.3%
Adonai Mitchell - 20.0%
Mason Taylor - 20.0%
Nobody else over 10%

How bleak

12. Devin Neal has seen 70% and 76% of the Saints’ backfield carries (including Taysom Hill) over the past two weeks.

His target share fell from 8% last week to just 5% today.

But notably, he became the first post-Kamara Saints RB to actually receive a carry inside the 5 today.

(Taysom Hill and Tyler Shough still have 7 of the Saints' 9 carries inside the 10 over the past three games.)

13. Emeka Egbuka’s target shares and fantasy points over each of the past six weeks without Mike Evans:

37.5% / 6.5
30.2% / 23.5
32.1% / 9.0
23.5% / 6.2
28.6% / 8.2
30.0% / 3.5

Since Week 8, Egbuka is the ~WR4 by target share, but the ~WR38 by FPG.

Mike Evans potentially

14. Daniel Jones tore his Achilles tendon and is out for the season.

The Colts’ target shares in three quarters with Riley Leonard under center:

Michael Pittman - 34.5% (caught 8 of 10 for 63 yards)
Alec Pierce - 17.2%
Tyler Warren - 17.2%
Josh Downs - 13.8%

15. Bhayshul Tuten lost a fumble on the Jaguars’ second-to-last drive before halftime.

From that point on, Travis Etienne received every backfield carry and 13 of 14 backfield opportunities.

He gets the Jets at home in Week 15.

16. DK Metcalf commanded a season-high 35.3% target share in Week 14, finishing behind only Puka Nacua in receiving yards (148) on the week.

This seemed like a possibility from Metcalf’s schematic matchup, but I won’t pretend like I actually got onto him at all this week.

17. Derrick Henry is now tied with Jonathan Taylor for the most carries inside the 10-yard line of any RB, having added 4 more to his tally today.

But Henry has scored on only 19% of those looks this season, the 3rd-lowest rate of 29 qualifiers (ahead of only Saquon Barkley and

18. RJ Harvey has now had between a 60% and 65% backfield carry share in all three games since the JK Dobbins injury.

This week, he received every carry inside the 10-yard line for the second game in a row.

AND he commanded a season-high 15.8% target share, leading all RBs this

19. Raiders rookie WR Jack Bech paced the team in targets (6).

4 of them came from Kenny Pickett in the 4th quarter — so Geno Smith’s status is worth tracking — but this isn’t to discount it: Pickett and Bech led the team’s only two scoring drives aside from their first

20. The Bears’ target shares in their first game without Rome Odunze:

Luther Burden - 17.1%
Colston Loveland - 14.3%
D’Andre Swfit: 11.4%
[six players below 10%]

The rookies are leading, but this offense remains very spread out.

21. Speaking of spread-out offenses, the Packers didn’t have a single player above a 16% target share (for the first time all season).

Jayden Reed immediately tied with Christian Watson (and Luke Musgrave) for that team-leading mark in his first game back.

22. Over the past two weeks, the Rams have had a back-and-forth loss, then a dominant win.

Blake Corum has out-gained Kyren Williams on the ground in both of them.

Corum finished with only one fewer carry and was involved throughout; he out-carried Williams in the 1st quarter, and saw the same number as him in the 3rd.

This isn’t that different from the Bears’ ~55/45 backfield split.

23. Michael Wilson has commanded 31.6%, 30%, and 36.4% target shares in three games without Marvin Harrison Jr.

When they’ve played together, they’ve combined for a 31.6% target share.

(I don’t think it’s actually as mysterious as some are making it out to be: 

“Andre Baccellia” and “Trent Sherfield” simply aren’t stopping an actual NFL WR from taking 100% of the opportunities Harrison would have seen.)

That’s all I’ve got for you!

If you found this thread useful, make sure you’re following me (@RyanJ_Heath) and @FantasyPtsData for more throughout the week.

Enjoy the rest of SNF!

You may also want to check out Five Stats to Know, where I went a bit more in depth on several of these trends