Vincent Deluard

📢Tax Collection Update & Why I Fade the Cuts 📢

In March I had warned that tax collections were coming in slower than last year, which confirmed my case for a March bear market (See" Beware Ides the of March": https://x.com/VincentDeluard/status/1896675054605459850)

.. But April is stronger, with 8.4% growth !

Self-employment income (=gig economy) are esp. strong at 13%

Withheld Income and Employment Taxes +4.4% - a bit slower than last year but too strong for cuts

DHS /custom down despite tariffs🧐? Consistent with stories that DHS officers do not know how to charge the tariffs and collapse in import volume

Fade the cut!

I always thought May was crazy, and a June cut is less than 50% 

Unemployment benefits paid by the DOL tell the same story

Weakening in Feb / March but stabilization in April

Up just 6% over last year,, which was full employment

(same with weekly claims) 

Corporations learned the lessons from trump 1.0 and COVID

Trump 1: don't react to tariff announcements, they will change tomorrow
COVID: don't fire workers you may need to re-hire in 6 months

Labor hoarding is the default behavior. 

The Fed should also wait and see!

Tagging my favorite starfish, @wabuffo who also monitors tax collections and has been a rare voice of reason during prior recession panics

PS: I still think the US economy is slowing, but I expect stagflation, not recession. See my Feb report 