Victor

-THREAD- Nottingham Forest : Premier League's best block(buster) this season.

- designed to beat the PL matrix
- man marking identity
- tracking runs all over the place
- sound game to game adjustments 

Fact : The PL is by far and away the best league in the world
Other fact : PL football tends to get more and more standardized around key principles shared by most teams trying to play "the right way"

As discussed here by the Overlap breakdown's duo, teams in the league tend to fill a template.
High press (often man to man), slow build up, box midfield... trying to play "the right way"
https://x.com/JOGOFUNCIONAL1/status/1870419421384093891

And it the midst of all that, Forest found "their" way to PL's top 3 while having the reported 14th wagebill in the league.
And they did so by going straight against the flow. 

DESIGNED TO BEAT THE MATRIX
It is a constant behavior in football to follow what's been working. Positional play, back 3, box midfield...
Even tho it's proven that most successfull tactical evolutions emerge from doing the opposite of what's being done. 

And this is what Forest are doing. The opposite.
Slow build up turns into long play
high press turns into midblock/deepblock
Counterpress turns into delaying transitions
And so on.

But today it's all about what is by far the most resilient block in the PL.
Low field-tilt (which means the game is played in their defensive third). Second highest PPDA (which means they allow their opponents to pass it around without being eager to get it back.
@DataAnalyticEPL 

They also happen to have the thid lowest total of xG conceded. And the second lowest goals conceded.

In order to achieve those, Forest's defensive model was designed to deal with PL standardized possession game. Thats and some smart game to game adjustments. 

More often than not, it looks like that.
4-4-2/4-2-3-1ish set up (not that it is more relevant than a postcode but yeah).
- man marking tendencies in midfield (double-pivot AND #10s) with on CM jumping 
- Tight back 4
- Low pressure on CBs
- Wingers roles adjusted game to game. 

ASTON VILLA
Probably one of the best performances from Forest this season against a box midfield.
- Gibbs-White man marking the best technician in the double-pivot
- Anderson tracking Rogers
- game to game : Wood cutting off Torres and his a good left foot
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1876947865076990122

Other game to game adjustment is Dominguez (actual CM) tucking inside to defend McGinn who slots in as the left #10.

Because Digne is the one presence wide and wants the ball to feet to use his left foot.

That's gameplan within principles (keep a man to defend the pocket #10)

MAN UNITED
29% possession in this game. United with their now well known 3-4-3.
- Gibbs-White man marking the better #6 (Mainoo)
- This time Wood screen Ugarte
- CMs pick up united's 10s in the pockets (Bruno and Garnacho)
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1876950466585649281

The one interesting stuff here is wingers pressing out to in to avoid United to connect with their fullbacks and then send their #10 running the channels which would've exposed Villa back4.

CHELSEA 
The good old textbook inverting fullback tucking in the double-pivot and two #10s pushing higher.
34% possession or Forest who kept Chelsea quite quiet until Ward-Prowse was sent off
- MGW on Caicedo
- no pressure on Colwill
- Yates on Enzo
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1876952670285537292

The game to game stuff here was mainly about not "giving" any free pressure to Chelsea to prevent them to play an easy 3rd man combination.
See Hudson-Odoi and Anderson happy to let Chelsea play wide.

TOTTENHAM
Trickier than the classical double-pivot. Spurs play a lot of rotations down the wings and usually have Matar Sarr ARRIVING in the pocket rather than being stationnary.
Still : 
- MGW on the pivot 
- CMs tasked to track the #10s runs
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1876954532233544052

The big game to game adjustment here is the way Forest locked in man to man on the flanks to follow Spurs' rotations while obsessively keeping a cover to prevent Spurs from playing the underlaps that they like. 
Huge shift from Elanga and Hudson-Odoi.

BRIGHTON
Another team that likes a third man combination.
- really gentle pressure on the CB
- Wood and MGW sharing custody of Baleba to prevent a monster carry through midfield
- Anderson tracking Rutter
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1876955519979516096

The Brighto game as interesting because BHAFC didn't do stationary 10s in the left pocket. Hinshelwood, Mitoma moved in and out of the pocket and troubled Hudson Odoi, Ward-Prowse and Aina. 
When to/who close the pocket, Aina covers or gets tight to the man holding the width...?

LIVERPOOL
And finally the big one. Beating Liverpool away is by far the biggest feat of arms from Forest this season and they did it keeping Liverpool under 1xG.

This being said, Liverpool proved to be efficient to bypass Forest's midfield for two reasons :
- they do don't do your stationary 10 in the pockets/half-spaces
- they rotate in midfield. Up and down.
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1876956929609625744

Thats why Forest had to put on a masterclass at delaying and getting back behind the ball when played through.
And this is where we tap into something interesting (or at least I think so).

Whenever I start following a team, I like watching the press conferences/interviews of the coach.
Because each coach has key words and each key word helps to get who they are.
Nuno Espirito Santo's are : hard wok, run, resilience, compete, workrate...
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1876962045905564071

Obviously those are words. You may thinks words are just words and a lot of time they are.
I personally think that too often football talk is talking too much about « tactics » and not enough about what makes them sustainable.

And that's is getting the players to buy into something and find a way to fuel them because high level football is about resilience to do the right thing over and over and over again for 38x100 minutes.
Nottingham's ability to defend in a block is a testament to that.

Nuno Espirito Santo is also extremely high on « controlling the game » despite his team having the lowest possession %. The fact is, they do.
https://x.com/Victorvid2/status/1877706282720797003

These days most teams seek to put their opponents off balance via the half-spaces/pockets. If you nullify them in those areas, you keep things under control. Lowest possession in the league, only 9th team conceding the most key passes.

If you delay, delay, delay whenever you’re broken down, you don’t get yourself exposed.
If you know how to defend your box (including second post and cutback zone) you don’t concede shots on crosses. Most crossed faced in the PL, 10th team for successful crossed suffered.

Forest conceded the third lowest xG in the league and have the lowest npxg/shot conceded, tied with Arsenal. So yes, they defend a lot. But how often are they on a knife edge ?