bucko

I’ve been trading Quarterly Theory for over one year now, I also learnt everything firsthand from Daye himself inside of his 2024 mentorship.

If I was to start my whole entire QT journey all over again, here is what I would do:

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1.) First things first I would start by watching Dayes YouTube video - “Introduction to Quarterly Theory”. 

From just that video alone I know have a basic understanding of how cycles / quarters work, aswell as true opens.

I would then study the specific AMDX / XAMD cycles.

2.) The next concept I would focus on would be Sequential SMT (SSMT). I have a thread explaining what SSMT, so check that out if you don’t have an understanding on it yet.

I would backtest the past 2 years at least on each cycle:

Yearly
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
90M
Micro

I would then ask the charts these questions and collect as much data as possible to do with SSMTs:

- Which quarters are more likely to form high/low of the cycle?

- Which specific time do most of the SSMTs occur at?

- How many SSMTs occur on average within each cycle?

- Are the SSMTs that form in line with the HTF orderflow more effective?

- Are two SSMTs on two different cycles more effective than just one?

- What is the purpose of a SSMT that doesn’t form in line with the HTF orderflow?

- Are SSMTs that are formed via news event stronger?

- Are SSMTs more effective inside of HTF gaps?

Some advice to the more beginner QT traders would be to only look for SSMTs that occur in line with the HTF orderflow, as if you don’t know how to identify a SMT-MSS you will get reckt more times than not.

Now at this point I understand exactly when, why and how to use SSMT.

And when it is the highest probability (when formed by a news event).

3.) The next concept I would choose to master would be Precision Swing Points (PSP). I also have a thread explaining what a PSP is, so go and check that out if you don’t currently know what one is.

I would then begin collecting data on PSPs and asking the charts these questions:

- Is a PSP more effective if it forms at a specific time?

- Is there usually a LTF PSP inside of a HTF one?

- When/why do PSPs get souped?

- Are PSPs more effective if they form after a SSMT?

- How can I use PSPs to anticipate SSMT?

- How/when can I trade candle number 3?

Okay, so now we have completely mastered SSMT &amp; PSPs, the two most important QT concepts.

From here I would then begin backtesting how I can combine the two together the most effectively.

- SSMT + PSP

- PSP + SSMT

- SSMT + SSMT + PSP

Backtest those three sequences…

4.) The final main concept i’d put a lot of my attention into would be SMT-Fills. They’re super powerful for catching both reversal/continuation trades, hence why it’s a great concept to have inside your arsenal.

I also have a thread on SMT-Fills, so be sure to check that out.

These are the questions i’d ask the charts regarding SMT-Fills:

- How can I use SMT-Fill to catch reversal trades?

- How can I use SMT-Fill to catch continuation trades?

- What usually occurs inside of a SMT-Fill gap before we trade away from it?

- Which asset is more likely to trade into the gap based on what occurred prior to the gap being formed?

- Are SMT-Fills more powerful if they’re trading into a premium/discount gap?

Once I have all of these questions answered, I would then backtest setups that have a:

- SSMT + PSP + SMT-Fill

- SSMT + SSMT + PSP + SMT-Fill

- PSP + SSMT + SMT-Fill

- SSMT + SMT-Fill with the first gap that forms after the SSMT.

- PSP + SMT-Fill within the gap that forms immediately after the PSP.

5.) The next thing i’d focus on would be measuring premium/discount by using only time.

The most effective way to do this is of course with the use of true opens, but another super effective way would be using the previous HTF quarter as a way of measuring the range.

For example if you’re trading the daily cycle on a Thursday, the previous HTF quarter would be the weekly cycle Q3 (Wednesday) so we use the previous days range when viewing the daily cycle.

Now we understand this concept, let’s go back to the charts and ask it a few questions:

- When &amp; why does price return back to a premium / discount?

- How much more effective are gaps that rest within premium / discount?

- How does price react at the premium / discount levels?

- What occurs to allow price to drop from a premium - discount or discount - premium?

Now we have all the information we need in order to identify exactly when and why price is most likely to move.

That is the main part, being able to read price action.

5.) The final thing we need is an entry model that we can consistently repeat whenever we see our setup occur within price.

There are many entry models out there, so it’s all about finding your personal favourite.

Personally I like SMT-Fills/IFVGs or PSPs for my entries.

You also need to choose which type of trader you want to be:

- Scalper
- Intra-day
- Weekly range
- Swing trader

I personally trade intra-day/scalp so i’d focus mainly on how i’d enter the HTF setups using a LTF for entries.

For example if we form a Daily cycle SSMT + 15M PSP, how can I then enter on the 1M? 

I’d go back into price and study what occurs within the timeframe i’d want to enter on whenever a HTF setup occurs. 

These are the things you should be looking for:

- How well does the first LTF IFVG work after the HTF setup forms?

- How well does the first SMT-Fill work after the HTF setup forms?

- How well does the first LTF PSP work after the HTF setup forms?

- How well does the first LTF breaker work after the HTF setup forms?

- How well does the first LTF CISD work after the HTF setup forms?

The same applies for entering on the HTF also, just of course focus on the entry model on the specific time frame the setup occurs on.

Once you have found which entry model works the best for your trading style, just collect loads and loads of data on it, and refine it.

And that’s it…

You know have a solid understanding on how to read price action, and how to get into trades after seeing your setup form.

Remember… ask the charts the questions, not anyone else, you have to see these things with your own eyes in order to trust them.

With that being said, that concludes this thread.

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