David Frum

Donald Trump's approval rating in his first term moved in a narrow band: never above 50%, but also seldom below 40%, and then not much below. 1/x

Even during COVID, Trump's supporters stayed true. Unhappy as they were during COVID, Trump supporters agreed to shift blame for their unhappiness to somebody else: blue-state governors, Dr Fauci, etc. 2/x

But what if the US is struck by a disaster that is undeniably Trump's doing? Financial markets *predict* the disaster, but are not themselves the disaster. Few Americans have yet lost jobs, prices are only beginning to rise, shops are still full of goods to buy. 3/x

That all will soon change. Job losses are beginning. Price rises are accelerating. Cross-Pacific traffic has plummeted, so shortages are imminent. 4/x

It's often assumed that Trump defies laws of political gravity. Maybe so, but probably not. The recession that began in December 2007 dragged George W. Bush approval rating below 30% by late 2008. Jimmy Carter suffered worse numbers in 1979-80. 5/x

Today's politics too will look different with Trump's numbers below 35%. Republican senators have enabled Trump's criminality because they were afraid of him. What happens when they cease to fear? END